Focus on the 4's: Donovan McNeal and Jaylen Reed, carrying the ball for the Cardinals and Falcons. Photos by Ryan Coleman, d3photography.com; Steve Woltmann for North Central athletics

The new year now means it’s championship season in Division III and the 2025 season culminates on Sunday, January 4 at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. Division III is painting the town red as defending champion North Central seeks their fourth championship against UW-River Falls who are seeking their very first. The Gagliardi Trophy award winner will participate in the game for the fourth consecutive year, but this time that player isn’t suiting up for North Central. Can Kaleb Blaha cap his historic season by leading the Falcons to a national championship? Can North Central set a program benchmark by winning consecutive championships for the first time? We’ll all find out in primetime with the moving pictures provided by ESPN starting at 8:00 p.m. ET. 

• Game day coverage from Canton, pregame through trophy ceremony
• ATN Podcast 402: Stagg Bowl LII preview

Our Quick Hits panel, plus guest panelists from each side of Sunday’s title tilt, is back to break down Stagg Bowl 52 and make their picks about who will hoist the Walnut & Bronze Sunday night. The Quick Hits panel has been making these predictions dating to 1999 when the panel correctly picked what everyone in Division III thought was an upset - Pacific Lutheran over Rowan. The panel has correctly picked the winner 23 of the last 25 Stagg Bowls, getting back on track last year with a majority pick for eventual champion North Central.

None of our panelists consulted with one another prior to their predictions. Feel free to add your pick and analysis in the comments section below and enjoy Stagg Bowl 52!

— Greg Thomas

Patrick Coleman, D3football.com publisher and executive editor

I like chalk. I believe in our Top 25 poll, I think it does a good job, and aside from giving some value to home field advantage, I'm almost always going to go with the higher ranked team. That having been said, our panel hasn't voted since before the playoffs, and I feel confident that if we had voted last week, we'd end up with at least a few people picking UW-River Falls No. 1. The easy and quick storyline is to compare this River Falls team to a previous red-clad group that lined up against the Cardinals, in Cortland, and there certainly are some similarities. North Central is way healthier at this point in the season than it was in 2023, though, so that alone shouldn't be a reason to pick River Falls. I do think River Falls is better, straight-up, than that 2023 Cortland team. Too many weapons on offense, including the ultimate Division III football weapon, who will have the ball in his hands perhaps 80 times, if all goes right. Can North Central slow Kaleb Blaha down? Or will it just slow itself down in order to keep the ball out of the River Falls' offense's hands. The question is, really, how many defensive stops can River Falls get. If they can keep Donovan McNeal to a reasonable yards-per-carry average, and get off the field a third of the time or more, they have a really good chance.

UW-River Falls 40, North Central 38

Keith McMillan, editor emeritus and originator of Around The Nation

After watching UW-River Falls win its semifinal shootout with Johns Hopkins, I figured my Stagg Bowl pick would be the Falcons in a Cortland-in-2023-like classic for the ages. Logan’s Hansen Ratings even gave UW-RF a 52% chance to win, so I wouldn’t be going that far out on a limb. But then as I watched North Central demolish a John Carroll team that had smothered everything in its path, I struggled to find the Cardinals’ weakness. The UW-RF Top Gun offense might catch a defense unprepared on the old six-day turnaround, but NCC has 15 days to prep. And preposterous as this might seem post-Lehnen/Greenfield/Kamienski/Rutter, these Cardinals might be the best iteration yet. They’re deep, versatile and strong along both lines. No longer the fun upstart that broke up the purple powers, North Central is now the bully that nobody but their own fans will be pulling for. But while all non-invested observers will want to see the Falcons sling it around Hall of Fame stadium, dial up fake field goals and do backflips after TDs, the Cardinals might simply be too strong. In a game where Rahmareon Roby and JP Sullivan wreak enough havoc for North Central to get a few stops, the Falcons’ defense will struggle to get many against Garret Wilson, Thomas Skokna and company, and NCC repeats. North Central 44, UW-River Falls 28.

North Central 44, UW-River Falls 28

Greg Thomas, Around The Nation Columnist

Somewhere near the beginning of November, I was pretty adamant that the most intriguing game one could make in Division III this year would be North Central vs. UW-River Falls. Guess what, gang? Happy days. Both sides navigated some significant turnover from 2024 to build the two most dominant teams in the division this year. The Falcons give very strong vibes to another team that recently broke through to win their first championship- the 2019 North Central squad. As was the case with that 2019 Cardinal squad, this Falcon team brings the Gagliardi Trophy winning quarterback leading an offense that can’t seem to be stopped, and a much-better-than-you-realize defense. Let there be no mistake- UW-River Falls has all of the pieces to be a national champion. The very same can be said for North Central. We know because the Cardinals have made the Stagg Bowl their home away from home. Despite major turnover from one of the best offenses a year ago, the Cardinals formula remains familiar -- a punishing ground game complemented by hyper-efficient passing (incredibly more efficient than offenses led by the NCAA’s all-divisions leader in career passing efficiency, Luke Lehnen). The offenses are a wash for me -- both are great. Historically so. The difference that tilts the scale for me is the consistency of the Cardinal defense. JP Sullivan is the most disruptive player in the division and unless the River Falls tempo can wear him and the rest of the Cardinal defensive line out, an extra stop by the Cardinal defense will be the margin.

North Central 38, UW-River Falls 36

Logan Hansen, Hansen Ratings Creator, Quick Hits Panelist

Riley Zayas, Managing Editor Tru To The Cru, Quick Hits Panelist

We’ve arrived. One game remains, and the anticipation for this matchup is certainly warranted. We have UW-River Falls, whose historic season has included more memorable plays that I have room to write, in its first Stagg Bowl led by the nation’s most dynamic dual-threat QB. As for North Central, anything short of a Stagg Bowl appearance at this point would probably feel like a letdown, but NCC never really came close to that fate, as the Cardinals have outscored their four playoff opponents 149-75. To me, this matchup comes down to how the UW-River Falls defense handles NCC’s run game. UWRF allowed 233 rushing yards to Johns Hopkins in the semifinals, and from my view, NCC’s offense feels like a more athletic version of JHU up front, taking the same hard-nosed running style and pairing it with a superior offensive line. Establishing the run has been a constant in NCC’s success, and in this particular matchup, could pay dividends if the Cardinals get it going early, allowing them to control the clock. UWRF’s offense plays at 100 miles an hour, and will certainly put points on the board. But at some point, the number of possessions becomes a factor. NCC had three 10-play drives against John Carroll in the semifinals, and if the Cardinals replicate that, relying on Donovan McNeal and sprinkling in some chunk plays through the air, they’ll limit how often Kaleb Blaha & Co. are on the field. Maybe it’s because of familiarity and having seen NCC in this spot so many times before, but I don’t expect Brad Spencer’s squad to give up a second-half lead after they gain it, especially with the way the defense has performed as of late. UWRF will keep it tight, yet it’ll be the Cardinals crowned champions in Canton. 

 

Carlo Guadagnino, Creator and host of Dingo Talk, Quick Hits Panelist

The Stagg Bowl delivers a compelling contrast in styles as North Central and UW–River Falls meet with a national championship at stake. North Central enters as the sport’s modern dynasty, built on relentless tempo, elite balance, and a defense that turns games into track meets their opponents never wanted to run. The Cardinals stress every inch of the field, forcing defenses to pick their poison while capitalizing on even the smallest breakdowns. Just as impressive is an NCC defense that swarms, tackles in space, and consistently flips field position.

UW–River Falls has earned this moment through physicality, discipline, and a willingness to win ugly. The Falcons want to control the line of scrimmage, shorten the game, and turn the Stagg Bowl into a four-quarter fight. If UWRF can sustain drives, finish in the red zone, and limit explosive plays, they can keep this one uncomfortable deep into the second half.

But championships are often decided by depth, pace, and the ability to adjust. That’s where North Central holds the edge. Their experience on this stage, combined with superior speed and execution, feels difficult to overcome. Expect a competitive start before NCC’s pressure and tempo create separation. Prediction: North Central pulls away in the second half to secure another Stagg Bowl title.

North Central 45, UW-River Falls 35

Kobe Manzo, Founder and Host of of Division 1 Rejects, Quick Hits Panelist

This week is all about both teams playing their game (yes, I'm getting good at this "coach-speak" thing). Even with an extended break to recharge, you don't reinvent what got you to this point. I don't expect a conservative start to this one and doubt we'll have a defensively dominated first half as we've seen in a few championships. That extra time does mean that both these staffs have had ample time to scheme up some fun ways of disguising their same ol' designs when it comes to window-dressing and formations on offense and getting to the QB and generating pressure on defense. With some of the best minds in the country pacing the sidelines, this will ultimately fall to the players to discern what they're seeing and sort through the muck to fly around and make plays. I'm saving my game pick for our live pregame show (where we'll be joined by a celebrity guest picker), but I can't WAIT to go to my first-ever Stagg Bowl and witness history while watching some phenomenal football teams.

Prediction: Watch Small School Saturday.

Mike Shoultz, UW-Eau Claire defensive back, 2019-2021. Quick Hits Playoff Panelist

What an amazing tournament and despite some of NPI’s faults, it delivered the two best teams to the Stagg Bowl! Personally, this is the hardest Stagg Bowl winner to pick since the 2021 game between UMHB and NCC. Can UWRF’s defense stop Donovan McNeal’s rushing attack? I’m guessing no. Can NCC stop Kaleb Blaha from putting up points? I’m guessing no. I believe we have a shootout on our hands and I’ll side with the best player in the country, at the most important position to win such a high scoring game, and that is Kaleb Blaha. This is like picking against the ‘98 Chicago Bulls, I don’t love it, it’s hard to do, but not all great dynasties fully reach the summit each year.

UW-River Falls 34, North Central 32 

Josh Mitchell, North Central cornerback 2011-2012, 2011 D3football.com All-American

Can anyone really dispute that these two teams were destined to meet in Canton this year? Good old CCIW vs WIAC for all the marbles! While the paths may not have been what was expected, I think most of the D3 community would have selected these two foes to come head to head to crown the champion when the bracket came out.

Both teams average 47-plus ppg on offense. So, this game is as simple as they come- who will get more stops on defense? Based on the offensive fire power that both possess, a defensive stop (or two) may be all one team needs to win this one. In my mind, this is a clear advantage to North Central, who is giving up 10.07 ppg (which includes the starters sitting most second halves), and have only given up 20 total touchdowns all season. UW-RF has the firepower to make plays, and I don’t doubt they will throughout the game, but assistant coach of the year, Shane Dierking will be fully prepped and ready with his game plan. I fully expect the NCC D-line to be able to get pressure consistently while only bringing 4 or 5 rushers, allowing NCC to focus on the playmakers on the outside and keeping Gagliardi Trophy winner Kaleb Blaha in the pocket.

With the defense doing their part, the NCC offense will have no problem putting up big numbers, as they have done throughout the season. Expect the run game to be grinding out 6-plus per carry (6.60 season average) and Wilson to find his main targets Skona and Rummell all night long. Both teams have common opponents in UW-Oshkosh and Wheaton. While this has no direct impact on this game, North Central won those games by 31 and 35 respectively, while allowing a total of 14 points. This will get ugly in the second half.

North Central 52, UW-River Falls 27 

Will Vernon, North Central defensive back 2021-2024, two-time national champion

North Central comes into this matchup looking to solidify itself as a dynasty and accomplish something they have not done yet: win two straight Stagg Bowls. That will not be an easy task, however. Standing in their way is one of the most explosive offenses in the country, featuring the duo of Blake Rohrer and Gagliardi Trophy winner Kaleb Blaha. On the flip side, UW-River Falls will be facing the best defense they have played thus far with players such as AP Defensive Player of the Year JP Sullivan, All-American defensive back Rahmareon Roby, and fifth year senior linebacker Danny Nuccio leading the defense. After giving up 41 to Johns Hopkins, the UW-River Falls defensive unit will have something to prove. I expect them to lean on All-American linebacker Gage Timm who comes into this matchup with 114 tackles, 14 TFLs and 5 sacks. Can the UW-River Falls defense get enough stops to put their offense in a position to win the game like they did in the Semifinal matchup against Johns Hopkins? The North Central offense has been virtually unstoppable all season, and I do not see that ending in this matchup. Defense wins championships, and I think this game comes down to the defensive side of the ball. I’m anticipating a high scoring game with Blaha and the Falcons offense making some big plays early, but the Cardinal defensive unit will settle in and get a few key stops late. The Cardinals’ experience in previous national championships will be crucial in crunch time. North Central wins, capturing their 2nd straight Stagg Bowl.

North Central 45, UW-River Falls 35

Got picks of your own? Put them in the comments!