Greg's take: I guess if you had pick a Cinderella team from the final four, it’s probably John Carroll. But the thing is, John Carroll isn’t that. They’re loaded with experienced players- they might be the closest analog we have in 2025 to the super senior classes of the last couple of years. They’ll need all of that experience from stars like Nick Semptimphelter and Ty Montgomery to unlock a North Central defense that- some late touchdowns in the last two weeks notwithstanding- have been among the best units in the country. Nobody has been able to properly deal with JP Sullivan, and Sullivan’s role as disruptor often leads to drives that stall before they start or turnover opportunities on the back end. Offensively for the Cardinals, Donovan McNeal is delivering on all of the promise of his 10+ yards per carry freshman season of 2024 and if that’s not working, North Central’s passing game is the most efficient in the nation. Not a bad second option. As great as both of these defenses are, North Central’s offense has been a shade more potent and a shade more consistent in this postseason and for that reason, I think the Cardinals are headed back to Canton.
North Central 32, John Carroll 17

Pat's take: I want this so much to be a good game. For all the talk from the powers that be about all the great second round games we were going to have, the thing is, those great games kind of ended in the second round. Hopefully we get one in the Stagg Bowl. I think John Carroll is actually good, and worthy of a top five finish, but I fear that North Central is enough better that this will not be a super close game. North Central will need to play all 60 minutes, and all 60 minutes with their foot on the gas, but I don't see there being enough from John Carroll to overcome the Cardinals. North Central will keep Nick Semptimphelter from finishing with the NCAA record for single season completion percentage, but that record was set by someone who didn't get past the round of 32, not someone playing in the round of 4. 
North Central 31, John Carroll, 21

Keith's take: Like Mount Union, UW-Whitewater and UMHB before it, North Central is not some untouchable powerhouse that wins by showing up. It would be foolish to look past John Carroll here, especially given that the Blue Streaks can match the Cardinals' size and toughness. John Carroll has allowed 26 points in three playoff games. North Central has averaged 36. The Blue Streaks allow 2 yards per carry and the Cardinals rush for almost 7. This is a classic watch-the-game-from-the-lines- out matchup, because whether or not the Cardinals can run the ball early will tell us a ton about how this game will go. And, as I probably type every season, we make Quick Hits picks to set the national expectation, not to get a bunch of kind comments below and pat-on-the-back retweets for being bold. If you're going into Saturday expecting going-for-their-sixth- straight-Stagg-Bowl North Central to lose, you haven't been paying attention. It absolutely could happen; the Blue Streaks are a worthy opponent and could deliver an interesting Canton clash with whichever high-powered offense is on the other side. But first they have to topple the current Kings of Division III. 
North Central 21, John Carroll 13

Logan's take: I thought the version of John Carroll that was good enough to beat Mount Union in Alliance would have managed better against Berry, but they played essentially the same sort of game against Berry, and managed only a marginally better result. Their defense won the day, forcing seven turnovers, and limiting any sorts of big plays, and the Blue Streaks are still completing passes at a relatively high clip in the playoffs, but their run game has struggled against playoff defenses. That's not a recipe for success against North Central. The Cardinals are not going to turn the ball over seven times, and I feel pretty confident saying they'll allow less than the 2.5 or 2.4 yards per carry JCU managed the last two weeks. I said last week that North Central was starting to show some cracks, and Bethel's running game found a lot of those cracks in the second half, but I'm hesitant to project that same sort of success on the Blue Streaks.
North Central 30, John Carroll 13

Riley's take: John Carroll has already taken down one giant in these playoffs. Are the Blue Streaks capable of doing it again? With the way this defense is playing right now...absolutely. But being capable isn't the same as actually pulling it off. While there probably isn't a better defense amongst these final four than JCU, there also isn't a better rushing offense still standing than North Central. For as much as I wrote about Bethel's run defense in last week's prediction, the Cardinals just steamrolled the Royals on the ground, running for 312 yards and 5 TDs. Quite honestly, they were never forced to throw it, a dynamic rarely seen at this stage of the playoffs. And they'll do it again this week if given the chance. JCU has certainly proven its strength against quality rushing attacks, and for that reason, ranks as the third-best run defense in the nation. This matchup -- NCC's run game vs JCU's front seven -- seems destined to determine the outcome in Naperville. For as much as I like what the Blue Streaks have done in three playoff wins so far, NCC is just so proven at this point. It'll end up as a two-possession game that is competitive for four quarters but ends with NCC's sixth straight trip to the Stagg Bowl. 
North Central, 30, John Carroll, 20

Carlo's take: North Central arrives as the nation’s top-ranked, unbeaten defending national champion, leading Division III in scoring (55 ppg) and with the stingiest defense (9.2 ppg allowed) under coach Brad Spencer’s dominant, balanced attack. John Carroll’s explosive offense (503 ypg) and tough defense has beaten multiple top-20 foes this postseason, but the Cardinals’ championship experience and home dominance tilt this one toward North Central. Prediction- North Central by double digits.
North Central 42, John Carroll, 28

Kobe's take: North Central wins this one to go back to the Stagg Bowl. It would seem that folks are finally familiar with McNeal's game out of the backfield (deservedly so) and have come to realize that this team will go as far as the front five will take them, which is all the way to the 'ship.
North Central 35, John Carroll 14

Mike's take: JCU is winning playoff games by possessing the football, limiting turnovers & scoring inside the redzone. In fact, JCU is averaging 37 mins TOP during the playoffs which is the most of any of the remaining teams. This skillset will allow JCU to hang around for the length of this game. But, with the way Donovan McNeal has been playing I find an upset here hard to come by. McNeal is averaging 147 yds/gm and 9.1 yds/car in the playoffs thus far. I’ll ride with McNeal and the Cardinals to yet another Stagg Bowl.
North Central 36, John Carroll 21

Greg's take: 

The experience edge here lies firmly on the sideline of Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays are return guests to the semifinals, while UW-River Falls is here for the very first time. Every day that this season pushes on for the Falcons is uncharted territory, but this team hasn’t for one second looked like these historical moments are too big. The Top Gun offense led by Kaleb Blaha has been unstoppable and coupled with a defense that now leads the nation in takeaways, the Falcons have the look of a team that can go the distance. They’ll have a unique challenge with a Johns Hopkins team that has an outstanding offensive line, a Gagliardi finalist quarterback of their own, and some major playmakers to go along with Bay Harvey in receiver Cole Crotty and running back Geoff Schroeder.  This game could turn into a bit of a shootout. I can’t pick against the River Falls momentum- everything is rolling right for the Falcons right now.
UW-River Falls 38, Johns Hopkins 34

Pat's take: I want this so much to be a good game. For all the talk from the powers that be about all the great second round games we were going to have, the thing is, those great games kind of ended in the second round. Hopefully we get one in the Stagg Bowl. I think Johns Hopkins is actually good, and worthy of a top five finish, but I fear that UW-River Falls is enough better that this will not be a super close game. I do expect Johns Hopkins to be able to score, but stopping UW-River Falls this year has proven to be a challenge for just about everyone. Containing UW-River Falls and Kaleb Blaha isn't like containing Susquehanna and Josh Ehrlich, but Johns Hopkins has been at this round before, and that's an advantage that UWRF doesn't have. 
UW-River Falls 30, Johns Hopkins 24

Keith's take: In our annual pre-playoffs Surprises & Disappointments ATN column on Nov. 20, I wrote this: "I'm on the record with UW-River Falls as a semifinalist from our preseason 20 questions, and I see no reason to change course now." After playoffs wins of 51, 28 and 25 points bring the Falcons to eight double-digit victories over playoff teams this season, that remains true. But we've also seen Johns Hopkins dismantle three straight playoff teams by holding them to an average of 12.3 points. And the last time the Blue Jays had a bad day, the offense still put up 28. Logically I cannot pick against either of these teams right now. But, Pat doesn't pay us the big bucks to waffle, hedge and waver in the wind. Saturday, something has to give. The Falcons' Top Gun offense is tops in college football, any NCAA division, by a lot. The Johns Hopkins defense tightens in key situations but is susceptible to the big play -- 69 and 57 yards against Salisbury, 56 and 44 against Springfield. This weekend in Wisconsin, if they avoid a disaster like the three-turnover second half against UW-Oshkosh in their only loss of the season, Kaleb Blaha and friends should orchestrate enough scoring drives to outlast Bay Harvey and the boys in a shootout for the ages. UW-River Falls 42, Johns Hopkins 35

Logan's take: I feel like this game could go in so many different directions. Neither team is lacking for quality opponents to compare against, but at the same time, Johns Hopkins hasn't seen an offense, or a quarterback, quite like Blaha and the Falcons. At the same time, UW-River Falls has played some outstanding opponents, but they haven't seen the offensive star power that Bay Harvey and Cole Crotty bring every week. I've watched enough of both of these teams to know that when they're clicking, they're nearly impossible to stop, but I've also watched them enough to know that when teams get physical with JHU's receivers, like CMU and F&M did, they can make that offense look out of sorts, and UW-River Falls definitely has the secondary to play that game plan. I also know when teams keep a cap on River Falls' downfield passing and get pressure with their front, they can keep River Falls out of the endzone enough to slow them down, and Johns Hopkins has the DL and secondary to do just that. Both teams are going to take a lot of big swings, and I just think River Falls will connect on just a couple more.
UW-River Falls 38, Johns Hopkins 28

Riley's take: It's been a few years since we've seen a WIAC team in a semifinal matchup, with the last such instance being UWW's run in 2021. It's been even longer since we've seen a WIAC team in the Stagg Bowl (2019). But UWRF seems destined to end that drought. And that's not a new realization. It was present in high-scoring non-conference wins over Alma and Coe to open the season. It was further evident in the Falcons' 3 Top 10 wins during WIAC play. And if further proof was needed, running past both St. John's and Wheaton in back-to-back weeks provided that. Kaleb Blaha leads an offense that is known for its pace and big-play potential, and we've gotten a good look at that in UWRF's postseason run so far. They're averaging 6.2 yards/play...in the playoffs. How does Johns Hopkins play into this? JHU's defense will be the best UWRF has faced, using HansenRatings' adjusted defensive efficiency, since UW-La Crosse on Nov. 8. The Blue Jays get after the quarterback and don't make many mistakes in the secondary, a combination that could lead to some success on Saturday. You also can't overlook Bay Harvey and the JHU offense, which has done a nice job of dictating time of possession and converting on third down in these playoffs. Make no mistake about it, this will live up to the hype as an intriguing semifinal. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a one-possession game into the fourth quarter. But in the end, UWRF will pull away, breaking a long gain or two in a crucial final drive to clinch a spot in Canton. 
UW-River Falls, 35, Johns Hopkins, 24

Carlo's take: UW-River Falls makes its first semifinal ever, boasting the nation’s top offense (558.8 ypg) and dynamic Gagliardi-finalist QB Kaleb Blaha at home, while Johns Hopkins leans on a seasoned offensive line and disciplined Blue Jays execution to punch its second straight final four ticket. With UW-RF’s  balanced attack, look for River Falls to edge Hopkins in a tight, high-tempo classic.
UW-River Falls 31, Johns Hopkins 24

Kobe's take: I'm going with the consensus this week, which means I believe River Falls is continuing on into unprecedented waters and making an appearance in the Stagg Bowl. We're well aware of the offensive output of the Falcons by this point but this defensive secondary and linebacker corps have continued to improve and are starting to finally get the recognition they deserve with some younger players having grown into important roles over the course of 2025.
UW-River Falls 28, Johns Hopkins 21

Mike's take: During the playoffs alone UWRF is averaging more ppg & allowing less ppg than they did during the regular season. QB Kaleb Blaha has increased his completion percentage in the playoffs & has 13 total touchdowns to boot. On the other side, the UWRF defense leads the nation in takeaways. I believe Bay Harvey and company will give UWRF their best test since they lost to UW-Oshkosh. JHU has size on both sides of the line & and their defense is allowing opponents to convert just 18% of 3rd downs in the playoffs. Is it enough…?
UW-River Falls 38, Johns Hopkins 20