Curry athletics file photo

It’s the penultimate weekend of the regular season, and Week 10 is a full blown pressure cooker. Three conferences feature winner-take-all games, while a handful of others could see bids clinched or chaos created. We’re also on milestone watch.  We'll take a look into Montie Quinn's dash for 2,000 rushing yards, and a pack of quarterbacks are looking to open up the 3,000-yard club in 2025.

Our Quick Hits panel is calling the shots, from clinchers to chaos, in a weekend that will probably deliver plenty of both.

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Logan Hansen of Hansen Ratings, Riley Zayas of True to the Cru, Carlo Guadagnino of Dingo Talk, and Kobe Manzo of D1 Rejects.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 7 Salisbury at No. 13 Christopher Newport. We’ve been waiting on this one for a while. Both teams are highly likely to make the field of 40, so the playoffs aren’t in question here as much as one of the coveted top 8 seeds, and the home field advantage that comes along with it. You can’t find much to separate these two- common NJAC opponent results are basically a wash. These are just two really good and evenly matched football teams playing for a conference championship on Saturday.
	Patrick's take: No. 7 Salisbury at No. 13 Christopher Newport. This matchup is the best one either team will play in this year in the regular season, and you know the two staffs have had at least one eye on each other all year, while scouting their opponents. That, plus what looks to be amazing weather in Newport News, Virginia, leaves me thinking that the teams will be well prepared and have no choice but to pull out all the stops.
	Logan's take: No. 7 Salisbury at No. 13 Christopher Newport. There are so many big & important games Saturday that it's hard to choose, but how can you go wrong with the last regular season matchup between undefeated teams. Both teams rank in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense and are #2 & #3 nationally in passing efficiency, so this one could get pointsy.
	Riley's take: No. 7 Salisbury at No. 13 Christopher Newport. A Top 8 seed is very much on the line here, as the Sea Gulls and Captains enter the week No. 8 and No. 9 in NPI. Beyond that, the last three matchups have been decided by 10 points or less, and while Salisbury has controlled the series over the last couple decades, this is one of the strongest teams CNU has had in quite a while. With both offenses averaging over 48 PPG, there’s a pretty good chance we end up with a down-to-the-wire shootout in Newport News.
	Carlo's take: No. 7 Salisbury at No. 13 Christopher Newport and  No. 9 UW-La Crosse at No. 8 UW-River Falls are on my radar!
	Kobe's take: I really want to say the Game of the Week is happening in Virginia... but the WIAC is still delivering in this department. No. 8 UW-La Crosse at No. 9 UW-River Falls is the game to watch with the Falcons coming off an emotional win breaking the streak vs UW-W and the Eagles coming off back-to-back wins over ranked opponents with somewhat of a WIAC title on the line Saturday.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 22 Baldwin Wallace.  We meet again! Basically all of the things I said here last week are right back in play- the Yellow Jackets are on the road against a team playing their final home game of the season. Baldwin Wallace survived last week at Muskingum, but the Polar Bears might be a stronger challenge, especially with ONU fighting for a spot in the postseason.
	Patrick's take: No. 12 UW-Platteville, by UW-Stout. Stout being the road team makes this even less likely, and pinning an upset pick on the premise, "well, some other road team has to win sometime," is pretty flimsy at best. But Platteville hasn't exactly run away and hid from some of its opponents, leading me to wonder if maybe the Blue Devils can pull it off.
	Logan's take: No. 22 Baldwin-Wallace. The Jackets are travelling to Ohio Northern this Saturday, and this matchup stands out in a week with several games with serious upset potential (Hardin-Simmons, Cortland, and Central all less than 2 TD favorites, as well as the Salisbury/CNU and UWRF/UWL games). The Jackets' only tally in the loss column is to Mount Union, but they struggled last week against a Muskingum team that ONU handled to the tune of 54-16 a few weeks ago.
	Riley's take: No. 22 Baldwin Wallace (at Ohio Northern). What stands out to me is how sharp ONU’s run defense has been, allowing just 95.4 YPG (ranks No. 1 in the OAC). BW’s offense has been at its best when George Linberger has room to run, and if ONU takes that away while also playing solid pass defense, it’ll tip the scales in the Polar Bears’ favor. At home, a place where they’re 4-0, I like ONU’s chances to win in that scenario.
	Carlo's take: No. 7 Salisbury. No. 13 Chirstopher Newport is playing really good ball right now.
	Kobe's take: No. 17 Berry. Maryville has an offense that has performed very well this season and has two final tests on their 2025 slate starting with the Vikings. The Scots got the job done in Rome last year and they are trying to repeat on the road this weekend.

Montie Quinn needs just 72 yards to reach 2,000 for the season. On which carry does he hit the mark?

	Greg's take: One thing is for certain this season in Division III and that is that Montie Quinn is going to get his yards. Occasionally, he starts slow, but his yards are inevitable. In front of a home crowd in a massively important game with significant postseason ramifications, I’m going to say that Quinn goes beyond 2,000 yards on his 9th carry of the game.
	Patrick's take: Curry carry No. 5 is the Quinn carry I favor.
	Logan's take: 8 carries. Montie Quinn averaging over 10 yards per rush, and has had nine rushes of over 50 yards. Because I am who I am, I decided to build a simulation that randomly picks one of his 180 carries in succession to see how quickly he passed the benchmark. In my sims, Quinn breaks 2,000 yards on his first carry about 3% of the time, in 25% of the sims, it only took him 4 carries.
	Riley's take: It’s not going to take him long at all, even against a UNE defense that has looked good against the run lately. I’m going to say by his third carry of the afternoon, he’ll have eclipsed 2,000 in 2025.
	Carlo's take: He could do it on play one. But I think it’s the first carry of the second quarter. That’s what the Great Carnac is telling me!
	Kobe's take: My gut tells me it's carry number six. No crazy stat or rationale but that's what I'm going with to cross the threshold.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Northwestern(Minn.) at Greenville. Greenville won the first round of this home-and-home series in the UMAC by a field goal. Northwestern responded by winning their next three games and are the side with the most momentum coming into this week. A Greenville win sets up a week 11 winner-take-all game against Crown. A Northwestern win means we might have to do some homework on how the UMAC breaks ties within its unbalanced schedule.
	Patrick's take: This game shouldn't be below the radar but in case it is, let me tell you about Belhaven at LaGrange in the USA South. This game is for the USA South, in fact, pretty good considering where both teams finished last season.
	Logan's take: Coast Guard at Springfield. Coast Guard is 7-1 for only the third time in the D3football.com era (since 1998), and for the first time as members of the NEWMAC. Regardless of how their game at Fenway against USMMA goes next week, if they win this one, they'll have their first conference title in nearly 20 years. That's easier said than done, though. Despite two early non-conference losses, Springfield is still the team to beat in the NEWMAC. They haven't lost a conference game since 2019.
	Riley's take: St. Norbert at Aurora. Last season, Aurora crushed SNC, 49-0. But that won’t be the case in 2025. Instead, SNC heads into this year’s matchup sitting one game ahead of the Spartans in the NACC standings with a four-game win streak in tow. But the Green Knights also haven’t played on the road since Oct. 11, and last beat Aurora in 2018. With Aurora at home, this is an opportunity for the Spartans to close the home portion of their 2025 schedule on a high note.
	Carlo's take: Hope v Calvin. The Rivalry has its second installment on the gridiron.
	Kobe's take: This one is GREAT! I'm taking a look at the "Alfred Cup" between Alfred and Alfred State, who also will be competing for the Traffic Light Trophy signifying their shared village of Alfred NY. These schools are just a half-mile from one another!

Alma, UW-La Crosse, and Eastern all have a chance to clinch this weekend. How many of them will punch their ticket to the postseason?

	Greg's take: While I do like all of the teams on the board here to win their games this week, I don’t like the help that Alma (Trine over Adrian) and UW-La Crosse (UW-Stout over UW-Platteville) need to get to punch those tickets. Eastern? They need help from Delaware Valley- who has been hot since losing to Eastern- and I think the Aggies oblige with a road win at Misericordia to get the Eagles into the big show.
	Patrick's take: As much as someone might root for chaos, I don't see any of the necessary convoluted scenarios coming true. None of these clinch.
	Logan's take:  One. Eastern is most likely, but Alma is realistic, too. For Alma to clinch: Alma win vs. Kalamazoo (99%) & Adrian loss vs. Trine (26%) For UWL to clinch: UWL win vs. UWRF (20%) & UWS win vs. UWP (14%) For Eastern to clinch: Eastern win vs. FDU-Florham (95%) & Misericordia loss vs. Delaware Valley (55%) Odds of all 3 clinching: 0.3% Two clinching: 15% One clinching: 51% None clinching: 34%
	Riley's take: Only one: Eastern. All three teams need some help from others in the conference to clinch this week, and ultimately, I only feel confident in Delaware Valley's chances to hand Misericordia a loss, putting Eastern in position to make history with its first MAC title in only its third season of varsity football.
	Carlo's take: Eastern and Alma.
	Kobe's take: I don't see Trine beating Adrian on the road, and I think UWRF keeps it rolling, which means the only other option is Eastern. Whether or not they take care of business this is not the DelVal team of old... I'm going with none of the 3 to clinch.

Eight quarterbacks enter Week 10 within 400 yards of the 3,000-yard mark — and three more are within 500. How many will eclipse 3,000 passing yards by weekend's end?

	Greg's take: Of those top 8 in the nation in passing yards, I think six will get there. Hiram’s Sean Tejada has had a historic season for the Terriers, but he’s got a tough matchup against Westminster(Pa.). And I’m going to get absolutely roasted for this, but I believe La Crosse can keep Kaleb Blaha (currently at 2,666 yards) to merely a very good game instead of an otherworldly game and put his quest for 3,000 on hold for week.
	Patrick's take: I count six with my back-of-the-tablet math.
	Logan's take: Four. At the risk of losing bonus points by picking incorrectly, I can see each of Romano, Teeter, Rollins, and Szalkowski getting there. Romano & Teeter are easy picks. Curtis needs 246 yards against a Bethel team he struggled mightily against last season. Rollins needs 261 against Berry. Berry has allowed that many yards twice this year, Rollins has eclipsed it every game (including vs. Berry in '24). Szalkowski plays Hartwick. Blaha needs 334, which would be double what UW-La Crosse is allowing on average, and he's only eclipsed that in half of UWRF's games. For everyone else, the number's just too high.
	Riley's take: Caleb Romano and Hayden Teeter are no-brainers, as Geneva and Puget Sound will both likely be playing from a deficit and forced to throw it plenty. I’m also looking at Carleton’s Jack Curtis, Maryville’s Bryson Rollins and UW-River Falls’ Kaleb Blaha. Each will need a really solid day to get to 3,000, but considering all three are facing high-profile opponents, it’s reasonable to expect the passing attacks to be utilized early and often, giving each a good shot at the mark.
	Carlo's take: I think we'll get five over the 3k mark.
	Kobe's take: Caleb Romano, Hayden Teeter, Bryson Rollins, Tyler Szalkowski and Kaleb Blaha all reach the mark!

Got picks? Put them in the comments!