UW-La Crosse photo by Jim Lund

Everybody’s in the pool now. With the last 11 conferences splashing into league play this weekend, it’s officially conference season across Division III. Week 5 wastes no time making waves as we've got six games between unbeatens, four Top 15 showdowns, and plenty of early playoff positioning at stake.

Our Quick Hits panel is here to help make sense of it all. We’ll spotlight the week’s biggest games, identify upset alerts, and peel back that quadruple-headliner marquee to find more games you shouldn’t miss. The panel is going to try to sort out the NESCAC traffic jam, pick some winners in a pair of “somebody has to win” battles, and call our shots on which offense finally breaks loose and scores more this week than it has all season.

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Logan Hansen of Hansen Ratings, Riley Zayas of True to the Cru, Carlo Guadagnino of Dingo Talk, and Kobe Manzo of D1 Rejects.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 14 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central. In a week chock full of Games of the Week, I’ll take the Little Brass Bell game. The Thunder warmed up with No. 2 Mount Union to open the season and that experience will serve them well under the lights in Naperville. North Central has retooled their offense, but have looked excellent through three weeks. The Cardinals remain favorites, but this one feels like Wheaton’s best chance to reclaim the Little Brass Bell since 2021 when the teams were both ranked in the top 5.
	Patrick's take: No. 4 St. John's at No. 12 Bethel. It's easy to forget that we don't get two of these games this season, but it's easy to remember that this is the only test either of these teams will get on the way to what should be a return to the playoffs for both squads. This is a Week 5 game for the MIAC title and should result in a packed Royals Stadium.
	Logan's take: All of them? It seems cruel to make me pick this week. UW-La Crosse at UW-Whitewater, UW-River Falls at UW-Oshkosh, St. John's at Bethel, and Wheaton at North Central would all be in the conversation for game of the week any other week of the year. If you're twisting my arm, I would go with No. 5 UW-La Crosse at No. 9 UW-Whitewater, you know, the game that's going to have 20,000 fans. If you're not going to a tailgate, get a comfy chair and enjoy.
	Riley's take: No. 4 Saint John’s at No. 12 Bethel. It seems pretty clear that one of the two will be crowned MIAC champion by the season’s end, and it’s this high-stakes game that will be the difference in the conference title race. But that’s really no surprise. I’m more interested in what we’ll learn about both the Johnnies and Royals in this head-to-head duel. Both are 3-0, but we haven’t seen either team truly tested yet, forced to execute a scoring drive with the clock winding down, or called on to come up with a stop under pressure. We should get all three of those things on Saturday in Arden Hills in this de-facto MIAC title game.
	Carlo's take: Its the Little Brass Bell game No. 14 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central. I can’t wait to see it in person- CCIW football, two great teams, it’s going to be a good one.
	Kobe's take: No. 5 UW-La Crosse at No. 9 UW-Whitewater. This feels like a gimme pick. These teams have seemingly separated themselves above the rest in the conference that has already generated lots of discussion. This matchup has continued to live up to the hype and I wouldn't be surprised if Perkins registered some seismic activity on Saturday.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 23 Christopher Newport. The Captains played spoiler to a ranked team on the road one week ago, but now find the shoe on the other foot- making a long road trip to play an unbeaten team (Rowan) hungry to establish themselves in much the way CNU did one week ago.
	Patrick's take: No. 22 Cortland. Expecting a fairly high-scoring game, and in my mind, that's a scenario which favors Utica. Cortland has hung in the Top 25 despite the fading of Grove City but I suspect that that buffer ends after this week.
	Logan's take: Last week all six of our panelists hit, predicting 4 different Top 25 teams to lose, and there are a lot of games with upset potential against this week. The most likely upset potential is for No. 23 Christopher Newport, who is red hot and coming off one of their biggest wins in years, which will either lead to more confidence or to the dreaded hangover game, but is playing a Rowan team that has been up and down this year, but who can beat nearly anyone in the country when they're up.
	Riley's take: No. 16 John Carroll (vs Wabash). I’m always hesitant to take a road team for the upset pick, but Wabash is on a roll in its 4-0 start. The offense’s ability to move the ball in different ways and QB Brand Campbell’s 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio gives me confidence that the Little Giants are capable of keeping pace with Nick Semptimphelter and JCU’s passing attack. I think this comes down to how well Wabash’s defense, particularly the secondary, performs on third down and in obvious passing situations. Third-down stops have been a strength for Wabash, but this Blue Streak offense will be the biggest test they’ve had. Assuming they do just that, Wabash would move to 2-0 all-time against JCU, with 64 years between their victories.
	Carlo's take: No. 22 Cortland is my team on upset alert. Utica is playing really good ball! Since the loss to Grove City, Cortland has scored a lot of points and looked good, but I believe in the Pioneers in 2025.
	Kobe's take: No. 5 UW-La Crosse. This felt like it would be a WIAC pick one way or another seeing how these teams cannibalize each other. Whitewater has lost the last two meetings by a combined 6 points... the Eagles are going to need some more late-game heroics once again to get the job done on the road in a hostile environment.

Who will be in first place in the NESCAC after the weekend?

	Greg's take: The NESCAC hexagonal becomes a quadrangle after this week’s games. Standing tall at 3-1: Middlebury, Wesleyan, Trinity, and Williams.
	Patrick's take: Wesleyan, Williams, Trinity (Conn.), Middlebury. It's definitely been an interesting first three weeks with six teams tied for first and true chaos isn't possible because some of those six must play each other. In that group, Trinity over Tufts and Middlebury over Amherst.
	Logan's take: I want to use the same tact here that I did for game of the week, and just say "all of them?" There are 16 possible combinations of teams that could be atop the leaderboard after this week, and here are my odds for each combination: Trinity, Middlebury, Williams, & Wesleyan 36.6% Trinity, Amherst, & Williams 2.4% Trinity, Amherst, Williams, & Wesleyan 13.9% Tufts, Middlebury, & Williams 2.1% Tufts, Middlebury, Williams, & Wesleyan 12.1% Trinity & Middlebury 1.7% Trinity, Middlebury, & Wesleyan 9.8% Tufts, Amherst, & Williams 1.2% Trinity, Middlebury, & Williams 6.4% Tufts, Amherst, & Williams 0.8% Tufts, Amherst, Williams, & Wesleyan 4.6% Trinity & Amherst 0.7% Trinity, Amherst, & Wesleyan 3.7% Tufts & Middlebury 0.6% Tufts, Middlebury, & Wesleyan 3.2% Tufts & Amherst 0.2%
	Riley's take: The NESCAC will go from a six-way tie for first to a four-way tie, as Middlebury, Trinity, Wesleyan, and Williams will each be 3-1. I don’t expect any big upsets, but keep an eye on Wesleyan’s game against Hamilton. Wesleyan may have the NESCAC’s top scoring defense, but nobody in the conference has thrown the ball as effectively as Hamilton has this season.
	Carlo's take: Think in a slugfest it’s going to be Middlebury. I would be careful if I was Trinity against Tufts, but I think it’s Middlebury at the top at this weeks end.
	Kobe's take: Wesleyan Cardinals. With a top-3 offense and defense in the conference, the Cards are back home after 2 weeks on the road. Their one loss at Tufts has an unfavorable matchup at Trinity this weekend as well.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: University of New England at Endicott. Endicott’s current 19-game CNE win streak started with a narrow 19-17 win over the Nor’easters back in 2021. Endicott has stood atop the CNE ever since. UNE is a young program, but have a decided experience advantage this year vs. Endicott. I’m looking forward to a great game in Beverly with massive conference championship implications for both sides.
	Patrick's take: Calvin at Alma. What a combination, right? The 4-0 Knights, trying to make waves in their second season of Division III football, and the Scots, who won when they were given a second chance in overtime at Hope. For Alma, it's already a situation where an at-large bid is likely out of reach, and for Calvin, well, what have they got to lose?
	Logan's take: Ursinus at Muhlenberg. During the 2010s, Muhlenberg never lost to Ursinus, but the Bears have won 3 of 4 against the Mules this decade, including a 42-35 win in Muhlenberg's 2021 conference championship season. Both teams come into this one 3-0. Ursinus has had little trouble with their schedule so far this season, and this is their first real test of 2025, whereas Muhlenberg has played in competitive games against tougher competition.
	Riley's take: Puget Sound at Lewis & Clark. The last time Lewis & Clark opened a season 4-0 was 2012. But in Year 1 of the Brett Elliott era, the Pioneers are on the brink of doing so again. The chance for L&C to accomplish something it hasn’t done in well over a decade is one big aspect of Saturday’s game, though there’s also the unique element of these two facing off for the second time this season. That’s right, even though this is the NWC opener, they played in Week 1 as a non-conference game, the Pioneers winning 56-20. L&C is the obvious favorite, but the familiarity at play puts a unique wrinkle into the approach for both sides.
	Carlo's take: Lake Forest at Ripon out of the MWC. Ripon is at home and they are 2-1 (2-0). Lake Forest comes in 0-3 (0-2) looking to spoil Homecoming and get the first win out of the way.
	Kobe's take: Randolph-Macon at Roanoke in the ODAC. While R-MC is receiving votes in the national poll, the Yellow Jackets still have a lot to prove against a 3-0 Maroons team that didn't even have a varsity team a year ago, and they just picked up their first conference win so their confidence is riding high.

We’ve got a pair of games pairing winless teams against one another this week- which two get in the win column?

	Greg's take: Centenary returns to the site of their first win in this new era of Gents football and I think they’ll get their first win of 2025 at Austin on Saturday. In the other game, Lycoming has been on the tough side of a pair of 3-point losses, whereas Moravian has been a little further away from the winner’s column through four weeks. I’ll take Lycoming to get over the hump and start Landmark play with a win.
	Patrick's take: This is the first and only time I've ever given a crap about a Westgate Christian score -- you know, the school that doesn't count that appears on some schedules, including Centenary and Austin College. I'll take Centenary, and as a 50-something person, I'll take Lycoming over Moravian.
	Logan's take: Lycoming (65%) & Centenary (61%).
	Riley's take: If Lycoming keeps the ball in the hands of RB Terrence Oliver, the Warriors should find their way to a win over Moravian. Oliver leads the Landmark rushing by a sizable margin, and going up against a defense that allows 198.8 yards per game on the ground gives Lyco a real advantage. Centenary will also get a win at Austin College, as Hal Mumme’s high-flying offense eclipses 400 passing yards in its SCAC opener.
	Carlo's take: Centenary and Moravian.
	Kobe's take: Lycoming & Austin. This Warriors offense has shown flashes for Lycoming and this can be the game they put together four quarters of solid play. On the other hand, the Austin defense gives me hope against a Centenary offensive attack that has been lackluster so far in 2025.

Which team will score more points this week than they’ve scored in all of their games combined so far this season?

	Greg's take: Linfield. The Wildcats have played just twice this season and scored 42 points in those games. There are lower point totals available on the board, but I’ve got a feeling the Wildcats are due to break out as they open up NWC play at George Fox.
	Patrick's take: I mean, Anderson is right out there for the taking, but I'm going to go with Northwestern (Minn.), which has scored 23 points this season and is heading into a Week 5 game with Crown.
	Logan's take: I think there's only one team in the country that's likely to accomplish this: Northwestern (Minn.), who has scored 23 total points in losses to St. Olaf, Bethel, and UW-Stout, but they're projected to put up 33 against Crown this weekend.
	Riley's take: Northwestern (Minn.). Yes, the Eagles are 0-3, but those three losses have come to St. Olaf, Bethel, and UW-Stout, who are a combined 7-2. While they’ve only scored 20 points thus far, the passing game took an obvious jump against Stout and facing a Crown defense allowing 31 points per game, it’s a favorable matchup to exceed the season’s current scoring total.
	Carlo's take: I like Moravian's offense to get it going- the Hounds get after it this week.
	Kobe's take: Maine Maritime. Their opponent, Nichols College, has conceded 215 points through four games (dang). The Mariners on the other hand have scored a total of only 29 points in three games... something has to give!!!

Got picks? Put them in the comments!