Quick Hits: Our predictions for Stagg Bowl 51

Jan 05, 2025

The names may have changed but the stakes are no different, and neither are the colors on the field.
2022 file photo by Dan Hunter, d3photography.com

The 2024 season has officially extended into 2025 and landed in Houston for Stagg Bowl LI! The marquee is as bright as it can be for Sunday’s game in primetime on ESPN. One sideline features a two-time Gagliardi Trophy winner, participants in five consecutive Stagg Bowls, and winners of two championships since 2019. The other sideline features the program that has defined excellence in Division III football for nearly three decades. Can North Central cement its claim to dynasty status with a third championship in five seasons or will Mount Union win their record 14th championship by returning to the pinnacle of the sport for the first time since 2017? Our Quick Hits panel, plus guest panelists from each side of Sunday’s title tilt, is back to break down Stagg Bowl 51 and make their picks about who will hoist the Walnut & Bronze Sunday night. The Quick Hits panel has been making these predictions dating back to 1999 when the panel correctly picked what everyone in Division III thought was an upset - Pacific Lutheran over Rowan. The panel has correctly picked the winner 22 of the last 24 Stagg Bowls. But fear not if your favorite team isn’t in the majority - our favorites have been bested in two of the last three Stagg Bowls, including Cortland’s thrilling 38-37 title win last season in Salem.

None of our panelists consulted with one another prior to their predictions. Feel free to add your pick and analysis in the comments section below and enjoy Stagg Bowl 51!

— Greg Thomas

Pat Coleman, D3football.com publisher and executive editor

Listen, Mount Union is going to be statistically an underdog in this game, we all understand that. But at this point in the season, some of that has to get thrown out the window. The Purple Raiders are playing their best football right now, and they'll need to do even more of that on Sunday night in Stagg Bowl LI. The combination of T.J. DeShields and Noah Beaudrie taking snaps will have to work as well as it possibly can, and Tyler Echeverry will have to do his full-on best waiting for a hole to develop then dashing through it. One needs only watch the third quarter of Stagg Bowl XLIX from 2022 to see the improvement in his running game on full display. And the defense will have to be playing full contain mode on Luke Lehnen, keeping him in the pocket, forcing him to throw. And the secondary, both corners, will have to make sure that Lehnen as a pocket passer is not particularly successful. Those would be my keys to the game for Mount Union, if that were my job on tonight's broadcast and not Keith's. But I'm not sure Lehnen and the Linemen will be contained or denied. The Cardinals have multiple guys who can run the ball well in addition to Lehnen, who leads the team in rushing touchdowns. Some of these linemen are new to the Stagg Bowl lineup and may not have faced this much pressure, so how they adjust to the speed of the game and the speed and force of their opponent will be key. And it will probably be on these undersung receivers to make some plays. And of course, on Lehnen to run as much as he can. For this is his 59th and final start and he will be expected to leave it all out on the field -- baseball season be damned.

North Central 35, Mount Union 28

Keith McMillan, editor emeritus and originator of Around The Nation

Let’s not overcomplicate this. Two of the four titans of Division III are on the marquee, but this is no matchup of equals. One team earned its way to Salem Houston by beating 14 opponents by 20 points or more. The other won 5 of its 14 games by one score. One team has a repeat Gagliardi Trophy winner at quarterback; the other hasn’t started its leading passer under center since Nov. 9. One has a Hansen Predictive Rating of 60, the other 43.1.

After these teams met in the 2022 Stagg Bowl in Annapolis, Greg and I wrote that we are all Mount Union, peering through the glass (literally on that day) at North Central, the new top dog of D-III. That remains true as the Purple Raiders and Cardinals prepare for a rematch of that wasn't-as-close-as-it-looked 28-21 championship game.

No longer is Mount Union the program that beats teams 66-0 to get here. The Machine is The Underdog. But, as we were reminded by Cortland last year, "better team" declarations are irrelevant; you just have to win one game by one point. For the first time, there are 15 days to prepare. Could Geoff Dartt, Daryl Ely and Larry Kehres find weakness in the mighty Cardinals and some strengths to lean into? Sure. With Echeverry, perhaps Beaudrie and linemen that were literally tossing Johns Hopkins blockers aside, the Purple Raiders might cook up ways to score on an NCC defense that allowed 3 points across its quarterfinal and semifinal wins. And maybe they can also find a way to bottle up the deceptively fast Lehnen, and pierce the mighty NCC O-line. If they do, we’ll remember it as an upset for the ages, acknowledging Dartt as the architect of one of the best coaching jobs in Stagg Bowl history. Because on paper, this should be a rout.

North Central 42, Mount Union 21

Greg Thomas, Around The Nation Columnist

It’s fitting that Stagg Bowl 51 is in Houston, the Space City, where we find the North Central Cardinals riding a rocket ship to what looks like a third Stagg Bowl win in the last five seasons. A remarkable achievement, indeed. Standing in the way of that coronation is only the most decorated program in Division III history. Mount Union has emerged from a regular season of highs and lows to string together four weeks of play through the tournament that has been reminiscent of Purple Raider championship teams. Make no mistake, despite their 13 national championships and nearly three decade run of being a semifinal regular, Mount Union are underdogs on Sunday.

I do think Mount Union, with 15 days to get ready for this game, has the opportunity to deploy some things, let’s say, with Noah Beaudrie that the Cardinals haven’t been able to scout. Surprises like that could alter the game flow and tilt the game in the Purple Raiders’ direction.

These teams are becoming familiar playoff foes. Maybe it is not quite the series that Mount Union and Whitewater established over a decade ago, but there is familiarity here and familiarity begets close games. As impressive as both offenses are, both defenses have performed well in this tournament and I expect they (and perhaps a big Sunday night wind) will suppress point totals. The difference maker in this one is North Central’s offensive line and I expect they will pave the way to a national championship, but Mount Union won’t let them run away and hide.

North Central 27, Mount Union 20

Frank Rossi, D3football.com Stagg Bowl sideline reporter, Co-host In the (D3FB) Huddle

I said it before the season: there’s no way North Central will let Luke Lehnen leave with a losing record in the Stagg Bowl. He’s 55-0 as a starter in every game but the Stagg Bowl, but North Central 1-2 in the Championship since Covid. The way the Cardinals played vs. Susquehanna was a reminder that their focus, which NCC players have admitted to us was waning in the end of the 2023 season as they lost to Cortland, is back with a vengeance.

Despite that as a pretext, it’s clear Mount Union is playing their best football of the season at the right time. In some ways, I think the Stagg break might have hurt Mount Union a bit in terms of that momentum, but they’ll still compete hard and will be in a position to potentially win this game. This will not be a repeat of the 2022 Stagg, where they were dominated for way too long before coming back.

However, the key for me is something I witnessed at the JHU/UMU semifinal — the offensive line dominated all game and protected TJ DeShields for a grand majority of the game successfully. If that didn’t happen, flat out, Mount Union would not have won that game. When it comes to the matchup against the North Central defensive line, though, we have an entirely different game here where pressure will be plentiful and rush gaps won’t be as existent. That will slow down the Mount offense and place extra focus on the QB spot.

In the end, I think the experience wins here for Lehnen and his offense, along with his defense providing sufficient possessions and opportunities to win this game going away. Would I be surprised if I’m wrong here? Absolutely not. But I had NCC as my #1 from the start of the Preseason — and the original reason stated above hasn’t changed all season.

North Central 27, Mount Union 17

Logan Hansen, Hansen Ratings Creator, Quick Hits Panelist

For all the unexpected results from this season's playoffs, we ended up in maybe the most predictable final imaginable - North Central in their fifth-straight Stagg Bowl and Mount Union in their 23rd since 1993. Right now in my predictive ratings, North Central ranks as both the most efficient offense and defense in the country. Mount Union is second in offensive efficiency, but only 12th in defensive efficiency. Digging into my opponent-adjusted stats a little more, North Central basically ranks first in any efficiency metric you can think up - Yards/Play, Conversion Rates, Points/Drive, Negative Plays Allowed. When they're playing at their best, I don't think there's a defense in the country that can stop them. If they have a weakness on offense, it's been throwing interceptions, where they rank 57th in INT Rate, but that's also been the biggest glaring weakness for the Purple Raiders' defense, which has one of the 10 worst INT Rates in the country. When Mount Union has the ball, things are more even, with both teams in the Top 5 or Top 10 of most metrics. If there's a winning recipe for Mount Union, it's going to need to involve some impact plays in high leverage situations on 4th downs or in the Red Zone and then hitting the right side of turnover variance. The recipe for North Central is a lot simpler - be the more physical team, run the ball, stop the run, and don't make mistakes.

North Central 42, Mount Union 31

Riley Zayas, Managing Editor Tru To The Cru, Quick Hits Panelist

It seems this was a Stagg Bowl matchup destined to happen, a rematch of the 2022 edition that saw NCC shutout Braxton Plunk and the Purple Raiders for three quarters en route to a 28-21 win. Houston will host these two heavyweights, and on the surface, the biggest question at hand is relatively straightforward: will Mount Union's defense be able to hold back NCC's high-powered offense for a full four quarters? There's no question that they can. The Purple Raider defense has allowed only 15.9 PPG and held three of its four playoff opponents below 200 passing yards. But it's a matter of if they will. Even the best defensive schemes have struggled when put up against Luke Lehnen and this Cardinals offense, who average a nation-leading 4.6 points per drive. OC Eric Stuedemann is so good when it comes to exploiting weaknesses in the defense, and I would imagine even more so when you have that 15-day separation between the semifinals and Stagg Bowl. NCC led by at least two scores at halftime in all four playoff wins thus far, and the play-calling balance certainly contributes to that. Lehnen's dual-threat skill set is key, but also a major credit to the Cardinals' depth, both in the backfield and within the receiving corps. It's the perfect example of complementary football, with steady gains on the ground forcing the opposing defensive front to load the box, creating ideal one-on-one matchups outside, allowing Lehnen to display the pinpoint accuracy that puts him just 40 yards shy of his third season with 3,000 passing yards. If that happens, I worry about Mount Union's defensive backs, who gave up several chunk plays through the air against Johns Hopkins. And unlike JHU's offensive line, who surrendered five sacks to Rossy Moore and the Mount Union pass rush, NCC's O-Line hasn't allowed more than 2.0 sacks in any game this season. So Lehnen is almost guaranteed to have time in the pocket to go through his progressions and pick apart the secondary. That's where my mind goes when I evaluate this matchup, and I think NCC pretty clearly has the edge.

North Central 45, Mount Union 27

Mike Shoultz, Wisconsin-Eau Claire defensive back, 2019-2021. Quick Hits Playoff Panelist

This is the epitome of a championship matchup. It’s a Stagg Bowl rematch, with star players on both sides of the ball, for both teams. Both teams average over 42 points per game, and both teams average allowing less than 16 points per game. I believe the bracket worked and delivered us the two best teams in the country! The more I breakdown these teams, the more I like North Central in this one. I have serious questions about Mount Union’s secondary. NCC is not an offense you want to rely on playing a ton of man to man to beat. If Mount Union finds themselves in a shootout, NCC is not who you want to be against. But, with a running back and wide receiver combo like Tyler Echeverry and Tyrell Sanders they can put up some points of their own. Holding the opponent to field goals and creating turnovers will be the key to this one. For Mount Union to win they will need to mix & match coverages at a rate we haven’t seen this year from them on defense. Attempt to confuse Luke Lehnen and make the star QB hesitate on his reads. I’m looking for 2-man coverages and using a wide array of different combo zone coverages to disguise and confuse. On offense, Mount will have to take their time. Which is something they excel at. Chewing clock via the ground game, and keeping the NCC offense on the sideline as much as possible will put the Purple Raiders in an ideal position to win. I think this game will be tight for the majority of the night, but a late NCC TD will put the game on ice.

North Central 45, Mount Union 34

Steve Harter, Mount Union Class of 1984, Football and Wrestling All-American

Throw the stats out the door on this game.

First, I would like to congratulate all 64 all Academic OAC award winners at Mount Union. We excel at sports, but academics and citizenship are expected. This game is going to be very simple in my mind. Both sides have tremendous skill position players, but as an old offensive lineman, the game will be won in the trench. Lilly, Burress, Kennedy, Cange, and Fortner must set the tone and control the line of scrimmage. These guys have played as one all season and must have an outstanding performance in the Stagg Bowl. These are Coach Dartt's guys. He played it and knows it.

Same on defense, Moore, Von Factor, Brown, Jackson, Yanssens, and Mt Boom (Wes Arthur) must play with their hair on fire. I watched the Johns Hopkins guys get away with a lot of holding. Lehnen needs to feel the pressure early and often. We have been in the final four 27 out of the last 29 seasons. Should have been there last year, but that's probably why we have a huge chip on our shoulders. Time for surgery- Mount wins by 14 points.

Mount Union 35, North Central 21

Kam Kniss, North Central quarterback, 2003-2006, two-time CCIW Offensive Player of the Year

The Cardinals appear to be the favorite comparing each team’s path to Houston. And unlike the 2023 run, where they ran through the gauntlet of playing the #6, #4, and #3 ranked opponents to get to Salem, North Central is healthy following a semifinal blowout where their starters didn’t play beyond the first half and a two-week rest before Sunday. But so is Mount Union.

If we have learned anything from watching the New Year’s FBS games, seedings and stats don’t guarantee victory and I expect Mount will come out swinging early on Sunday. Mount brings tradition from 30-plus years of D3 dominance and a chip on their shoulder coming into Houston having lost their last three to North Central. This year’s Mount roster is battle tested too, having had to play four full quarters vs tough Carnegie Mellon, Salisbury, and Johns Hopkins squads. But will that be enough to give the Purple Raiders the edge?

Not this year. Superman (Luke Lehnen) puts that cape on for his final act as a Cardinal and North Central pounds the rock behind the nastiest offensive line in the nation, which has paved the way for an average of 540 yards/game (305 on the ground). The Cardinal D take lessons learned from the last two national championships and are prepared for a full 60-minute battle, shutting down the Mount running game early and forcing the Raiders to resort to the pass. Coach Spence and the Cards roll for their 3 rd Natty.

North Central 42, Mt Union 24

Got picks? Put them in the comments!