d3photography.com photos by Doug Sasse, Tom Nettleon, Mike Atherton; Mount Union athletics photo by Ed Hall, Jr.

Forty have been distilled to four and by about 6:30 Eastern time on Saturday night we will know which two teams will clash at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston on Stagg Bowl Sunday, January 5. Will North Central make its fifth straight appearance in the championship game or will Susquehanna return to the midwest to knock out another titan? Will Mount Union solve the stifling Johns Hopkins defense or will the Blue Jays fly south for the winter for their first championship game appearance? Our panel of experts has come together once again to preview Saturday's semifinals and predict which two teams will ring in the New Year at Stagg Bowl LI.  

Our playoff panel will be our regular crew of Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas. We're excited to have UW-Eau Claire football alum Mike Shoultz joining the panel for the playoffs as well. We also welcome Around The Nation originator and longtime Division III guru Keith McMillan back to the panel. 

— Greg Thomas

Johns Hopkins at Mount Union, 12 p.m. EST, ESPN+

Greg's take:  In 2018, these teams met in a semifinal initially controlled by Mount Union, followed by a second half surge by the Blue Jays and ultimately decided with a Purple Raider pick six. Defense won the day in 2018 and I suspect it will again six years later. Johns Hopkins has been playing superlative defense for, let’s see, twelve weeks now. In their three playoff games, Hopkins has managed to get early leads and then hang on- defending right down to the last play in rounds 2 and 3.  The Purple Raiders enter the semifinal on the heels of perhaps their best performance of the season and, as evidenced by Noah Beaudie’s second quarter cameo, are getting healthier as the rounds roll by. Hopkins has a plus-31 point differential in the first halves of their playoff games and minus-16 in the second half. I expect that Mount Union will outperform prior JHU opponents in the first half and ultimately that proves to be the difference.  Mount Union 24, Johns Hopkins 17.

Pat's take: Johns Hopkins can probably slow down the Mount Union offense a little. But as Tyler Echeverry showed last week at Salisbury, you might be able to limit his rushing yards, but that doesn't mean you can limit his impact on the game. You might be able to throw off TJ DeShields for a possession or two. And if it last longer, it seems as though Noah Beaudrie is in a good position to come back and take more than the couple of snaps he took last week. The Purple Raiders defense will have to contend with tight end Will Leger over the middle, but he won't surprise anyone after his big game last week. I just see too much Mount Union for Johns Hopkins to handle. Mount Union 34, Johns Hopkins 20

Frank's take:  This week, we’ve heard a lot about the Johns Hopkins defense — and for good reason. The Blue Jays have given up 14 or fewer points in every game since Week 1. The stats would support JHU winning this game if they could have put up more points on offense. James Rinello has done an admirable job after QB Bay Harvey went down, but the Blue Jays will need to score 21 or more points to win this game. They’ve yet to exceed 17 in the playoffs, and guys like Rossy Moore will likely ensure that the offensive output remains tamped down. I expect this game to remain close and low scoring, but I feel the Purple Raiders will pull away late. Mount Union 24, Johns Hopkins 14

Logan's take:  I wrote last week that Mount Union has been an enigma this season, but now after 3 playoff games, I think the trend is pretty clear - the team of the last 3 weeks is who they were always capable of being. UMU's opponent-adjusted MOV in the regular season was merely average for a Top 25 team, but in 3 playoff games it's been right on par with North Central's, and comfortably ahead of JHU's and Susquehanna's. On the other side of the field Saturday, Johns Hopkins' defense is currently playing like one of the best defenses of the d3football.com era, and their passing offense is explosive enough to make this a game. The matchup to watch is Mount Union's offense vs. Johns Hopkins' defense in the red zone. Finishing drives has been the Purple Raiders' biggest offensive weakness, while JHU leads the country in points allowed per red zone opportunity. Mount Union 21, Johns Hopkins 10

Riley's take:  I know I was the one who picked Mount Union to "disappoint" in our Surprises & Disappointments playoff preview. And I'll willingly admit that I was dead wrong. The shaky performances of the regular season that caused some doubt have seemingly faded once it became win-or-go-home and last Saturday's 38-17 win at Salisbury was evidence of that, as the Purple Raiders went up 28-10 and continued their string of stellar defensive showings. But the matchup I'm watching in this one is that of Mount Union's rushing attack, headlined by Tyler Echeverry, against JHU's defensive front. The Blue Jays haven't allowed a rushing TD in five games now, and opponents are averaging just 29.0 rushing yards/game. This is by far the best run defense the Purple Raiders have faced, but then again, there's a reason why Echeverry leads the country in rushing scores. It's safe to say that JHU hasn't faced a running back quite like Echeverry, either. Ultimately, I don't expect many points to be scored in this one. But Mount Union will snap JHU's streak of consecutive games with zero rushing TDs allowed, break a couple big gains on the ground, and stay consistent defensively. That'll be enough to win a tight battle in Alliance. Mount Union 16, Johns Hopkins 10

Mike's take: Since their opening playoff game vs John Carroll, Mount Union has been as hot of a team as any. TJ DeShields has been efficient, consistent & accurate at QB. With weapons like Tyle Echeverry and Tyrell Sanders they have the offense to finally break through the stout Johns Hopkins defense. I said it last week, and I was wrong, but this week again I don’t think John’s Hopkins has enough offense to keep up with Mount Union. But, it will be tight! Mount Union 20, Johns Hopkins 17  

Keith's take:  These two teams are prime examples of in-season evolution. The teams we will see in Week 16 are far different than the ones we saw in Week 3, when the Blue Jays lost by 28 at home to Salisbury, or in Week 11, when the Purple Raiders were tied at 21 in the fourth quarter against 5-5 Muskingum. Mount Union has been dominant in two of its three playoff games, while Johns Hopkins has had to scrape and claw in all three. The Purple Raiders are playing at home and are 4-0 in the series, so the way I'm going with my pick won't keep you in suspense. But there's reason to believe in Johns Hopkins: In 10 wins since that loss to the Sea Gulls, no opponent has eclipsed 14 points, and that includes six teams who won at least seven games this year. The defense is legit. The vibes are great too, and with the Blue Jays returning to the site of longtime coach Jim Margraff's final game six years ago, Johns Hopkins is the sentimental favorite. But we make these picks to set expectations. Reality might surprise us, but the expectation is that Mount Union finds a way to grind out a win, similar to how it beat Carnegie Mellon two weeks ago, managing 4 yards per carry against a defense that allowed 1.76 per carry all season. Mount Union 19, Johns Hopkins 16

Susquehanna at North Central, 3:30 p.m. EST/2:30 CST, ESPN+

Greg's take:  It’s hard to find a pair of grittier wins than those posted by Susquehanna and North Central last week. The River Hawks trailed all game until a 91-yard drive ended with a go-ahead score…and then of course the final 35 seconds that they also had to survive. North Central walked away from a 60-minute slugfest against Springfield victorious but perhaps a bit worse for wear. The Cardinals top two running backs, Joe Sacco and Charles Coleman both exited Saturday’s game early.  Sean Allen played admirably and Gagliardi finalist Luke Lehnen is always going to play a big part in North Central’s game plan.  The difference in this game I believe is the Cardinal defense. With a lot of attention on the defensive performances on the other half of the bracket, North Central might have put together the most impressive defensive performance in limiting Springfield to a field goal. In a contrast to last year when key Cardinal defenders were lost to injury, this defense is in tact and playing at a championship level. I think Susquehanna has the firepower to score in this game, but the Cardinals’ balance carries the day. North Central 38, Susquehanna 24

Pat's take:  On the road at St. John's, Susquehanna seemed like it learned a little bit about itself, coming back to win after being down by 10 points twice early in the game, and getting a last-minute drive in the first half to tie the game, then a last-minute drive in the second half to win the thing. But North Central is much better defensively than the Johnnies were, and even if the top couple of running backs do not come out at 100 percent for the Cardinals, Luke Lehnen always has wheels, and there are more running backs behind Joe Sacco and Charles Coleman. North Central 41, Susquehanna 27

Frank's take:   A friend asked me today, “When was the last time a team played the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 teams in a single season?” The answer is rarely if ever, as scheduling and the setup of brackets usually doesn’t embrace it. Yet, Susquehanna is going to face that scenario when they face North Central. After a somewhat bad week vs. Bethel, Susquehanna QB Josh Ehrlich is going to be ready to bounce back, but the opponent his team will face is the best team in D3 football this season. The concern for me here is that the River Hawks defense giving up over 350 yards per game is a bad sign vs. an offense led by Luke Lehnen. I think Susquehanna keeps it somewhat close throughout, but Luke Lehnen will not be denied a chance to get back to the Stagg Bowl one more time. North Central 30, Susquehanna 20

Logan's take: For most of the season, Susquehanna's offense has been the driver of their success, but last week, the defense was the reason they were able to advance. In a game where their QB was pressured on nearly every dropback and their explosive running game was held in check, the River Hawks defense held Bethel to 5.5 yards per attempt and they routinely made tackles for a loss to kill drives. If that defense shows up this week, and if their Ehrlich can take advantage of a banged up secondary for North Central, this game could come down to the wire. Alternatively though, North Central could continue to do what they've done all season, put this game out of reach by the start of the 3rd or 4th quarter. They lead the country in basically every important efficiency metric on offense. And defensively, they're Top 10 across the board. Luke Lehnen is not the same sort of pocket passer that Susquehanna had success against last week, and after 15 weeks of football, the additional benefit of playing at home can't be taken for granted. North Central 38, Susquehanna 24

Riley's take:  There's just no stopping North Central. I get it, Susquehanna has been incredibly good through all three of its dramatic playoff wins, all of which have come by a touchdown or less. The River Hawks deserve to be here, and have the talent to keep pace with NCC. But they won't be able to do it for all four quarters. More than anything, it's NCC's offensive advantage that sets them apart as I look at this matchup. Susquehanna's defense has allowed 7.3 yards per play against playoff opponents thus far, and NCC's offense is even better than Hobart, Saint John's, or Bethel. That's a glaring number considering how strong NCC has looked when marching downfield, explosive through the air and on the ground. The Cardinals are capable of beating a defense in several different ways, and don't make many mistakes with the ball in their hands. 15-of-15 on red zone scoring opportunities in these playoffs with 11 TDs is pretty noteworthy, and I expect that level of scoring to continue on Saturday. North Central 45, Susquehanna 28

Mike's take:  Susquehanna is a team with ice in their veins. The “comeback kids” of sorts. The River Hawks have been perfect when it has mattered most. Going 4/4 on 4th downs vs Bethel last week. Taking a lead with 38 seconds left to win, and a walk-off field goal on the road. You can never count Susquehanna out. But, North Central is a different beast. The Susquehanna offense struggled for much of the game vs Bethel. Who was the best defense they’d seen this year, now NCC presents an even tougher challenge for the River Hawk offense. I don’t think there’s enough offense for Susquehanna to keep up. NCC will grind out the game into the fourth quarter and start to pull away late. Their depth of talent pays extra dividends in the 4th quarter this late in the year. North Central 38, Susquehanna 24

Keith's take:  Susquehanna has come up on the good end of last-play victories in back-to-back weeks, and with mighty North Central following two MIAC teams, no one could question the strength of the River Hawks' path to the Stagg Bowl. However, when that path leads through played-in-the-past-four Stagg Bowls North Central, we’re going to set the expectation at "Cardinals win." Let’s explain why. Two weeks ago, Hope brought a smothering defense to Benedetti-Werhli, and held North Central scoreless for a quarter. Then the Cardinals scored on their next seven possessions for a 41-21 win that remains their closest game of the season. Last week against Springfield, both teams came in leading the nation in various rushing metrics, averaging more than 7 yards per carry. The Pride were held to 3.6 per carry over 61 attempts, while the Cardinals were essentially the team they've been all season at 6.3. With just five losses in the past five seasons, Susquehanna has been knocking on the door for just about as long as they've been River Hawks. But while they're elite in several offensive metrics and feature a star QB, RB and WR, it'll take an epic defensive performance, and perhaps another classic finish, to keep the Cardinals from getting a chance to finish the job they came a point from finishing last season. North Central 38, Susquehanna 24  

Got picks? Put them in the comments!