Greg's take: A pair of high powered offenses headline this matchup and I expect something similar to last week’s back-and-forth affair in Collegeville. Keep an eye on the punt game in this one -- Bethel’s Matt Jung is dynamic in the return game (kicks and interceptions) while Susquehanna’s Rashan La Mons is a Division III co-leader with three punt return touchdowns. Either could make a big difference in this game in the third phase and boost their team to the final four. This is going to be a great game and I give a slight, slight edge to the home team. 
Susquehanna 38, Bethel 34

Pat's take: Sign me up to watch this one on the archive later. Don't want to miss a minute. Two Hugo Cifuentes field goals, not a missed kick. Yes, Greg, I still wrote short.
Susquehanna 35, Bethel 34

Frank's take: Throw out the notion of how Saint John’s beating Bethel twice and Susquehanna beating the Johnnies means Susquehanna beats Bethel. The Royals are playing their best football of the season in the playoffs, so I look at this without reference to those games. My key: the running game and passing game of Susquehanna will challenge the defense of Bethel on the road just enough to get the River Hawks a slight win here.
Susquehanna 27, Bethel 23

Logan's take: In what should be the closest matchup of the weekend, Susquehanna's balanced offense has put up great performances against everyone, but Bethel provides their toughest test to date. Bethel's defense has only allowed 100 yards on the ground twice this season, and leads the nation in TFL Rate and Sack Rate, and allowing TFLs & Sacks is the closest thing to a weakness the River Hawks' offense has. Susquehanna's defense has allowed 30+ only four times this year, but they haven't faced the consistent quality of opponent Bethel has. This feels like a race to 40 points that'll come down to the final possession.
Bethel 40, Susquehanna 38

Riley's take: Susquehanna has run the ball well through its first two playoff games, and by having a considerable rushing and passing presence out of that spread formation, the River Hawks can beat a defense in multiple ways. But I love the way Bethel's run defense has continually shown up, allowing just 65.6 rush yds/game in the playoffs. Bethel has the advantage in that matchup, and if they can both take away the run and force multiple turnovers, Cooper Drews and the offense will do the rest. 
Bethel 27, Susquehanna 23

Mike's take: A matchup with a great RB, Rahshan La Mons, for Susquehanna versus a great run defense that Bethel brings to Selinsgrove. The only offense that Bethel has seen this year that is as good as Susquehanna’s would be St. John’s. SJU dropped a combined 86 points on Bethel in two matchups. If elite offenses who can pass and run efficiently give Bethel fits, then this game will lean towards the home team.
Susquehanna 34, Bethel 27

Keith's take: Cortland last year revived the anyone-can-win-a-Stagg-Bowl vibe that the Purple Powers and North Central choked out of the division for 30 years, and Susquehanna seems most likely to step into that void this year. Especially since the River Hawks last week vanquished top overall seed St. John’s, the team responsible for the 2 in Bethel’s 11-2. But a deeper dive into the numbers presents some reason for pause. The Royals have the nation’s best run defense (31.8 yards per game) and are fourth best allowing 3.82 yards per play. Susquehanna’s defense, by comparison, allows 5.51 yards per play and has allowed at least three touchdowns in five of its past six games. While both are juggernauts on offense (75 and 74 TDs this season), the Royals’ Matt Jung-led defense might be good enough to go into Selinsgrove and emerge a winner. Susquehanna gives off the vibes of a team that could go the distance, but my rule on these picks is to lean on something tangible, and that's the difference in defenses. 
Bethel 31, Susquehanna 30

Greg's take: The two best offensive lines in Division III are probably in Naperville on Saturday, but those units don’t compete against each other. Instead we’ll get to see if Springfield can continue their physical dominance over an equally talented North Central defensive front.  The Pride pose a new challenge for the Cardinals, but I think North Central will get the extra few stops that others haven’t and move on their fifth consecutive semifinal.
North Central 42, Springfield 30

Pat's take: It's been a great run for Springfield but eventually the Shane Dierking defense gets the Springfield offense solved. Plus Luke Lehnen continues to extend his record in touchdowns responsible four. Or four.
North Central 31, Springfield 24

Frank's take: I expect the Pride to speed up this game to try to keep it close to have a chance at the end. However, I’ve attended enough North Central games to know they won’t turn the ball over like we saw Cortland do last week. That means the Cardinals will exert more control overall and expand their lead in the 2nd half.
North Central 35, Springfield 17

Logan's take: Like Cortland has allowed a few times this season, Springfield raced to a lead against the defending champs last week, and leaned on an offense built to play with a lead to keep scoring and play keep away at the same time. Unlike Cortland, North Central doesn't let teams race to a lead against them. They do the racing. Springfield will score some points against North Central - this isn't the same sort of dominant defense the Cardinals have fielded in the last few years - but I don't think it will be enough to keep up or to catch up with them.
North Central 49, Springfield 27

Riley's take: NCC's offense has been so impressive. The Cardinals are converting on 52.6% of 3rd downs, maintain a strong balance between the pass and run, and most importantly, have put up big numbers in the playoffs. NCC has averaged 41.5 PPG and 301 rushing yards/game in playoff wins over Whitworth and Hope, and if you aren't well aware of Luke Lehnen's proficiency as a passer, you've likely been living under a rock. Lehnen is able to pick apart defenses with ease, and for a Springfield defense that struggles to defend the pass, this is an incredibly difficult matchup for the Pride. 
North Central 42, Springfield 27

Mike's take: Springfield will be representing all of New England in this one! A chance to fly into the heart of the Midwest and take on the power house that is NCC is a huge measuring stick for Springfield. The triple option only becomes more effective as the elements become more of a factor. I think the triple option will not only give the NCC defense some fits, but it will also act as a defensive strategy to limit the time of possession for NCC’s offense. In the end, I’m not convinced it’s enough. NCC is not Cortland and I think the Cardinals are just too much for SC. But, they just might play NCC closer than any opponent yet this year.
North Central 40, Springfield 21

Keith's take: The most impressive thing about Springfield’s win at Cortland last week, was not that it got out to an early two-touchdown lead over the defending national champions. It’s that they squandered that lead, and still had counter punches. We are witnessing a legitimate Stagg Bowl contender from Massachusetts, a phrase I do not believe I’ve written in 25 years with D3football.com. But Cortland only had to slay the, er, Cardinals at the end of the road. Springfield is seeing North Central in the quarterfinals, at home, at full strength, one of the only other teams in the country averaging more than 7 yards per carry. (The other is Salisbury, with Mount Union fourth at 6.88.) On top of that, Luke Lehnen is the nation’s most efficient passer, and Springfield has the 70th-best passing defense. Certainly the Pride can beat North Central if they beat the team that beat North Central in last year’s Stagg Bowl. But they’ll need another herculean effort on the road. 
North Central 37, Springfield 20

Greg's take: The Blue Jays had some success last week against DePauw with a quick, short passing game.  James Rinello was efficient to the tune of 24-30 passing attempts. I think that’s the recipe against a UMHB defense that did not allow Linfield quarterbacks any time whatsoever to throw. Most of UMHB’s offensive success came from a pair of long rushes by their talented backs Asa Osbourn and Kamerin Ferguson. If the Cru get a pair of home runs like they did last week, that should be enough, but can they connect against a Blue Jay defense that has been every bit as stingy as UMHB’s? This game could well come down to the final play. 
Johns Hopkins 15, Mary Hardin-Baylor 14

Pat's take: Someone will score. This game will, in fact, be higher scoring than generally anticipated, if only because I think both teams will hit double digits. Because someone will get a big return or a defender will fall down or something.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 17, Johns Hopkins 13

Frank's take: The difference-maker in this game is the balance we’re beginning to see in the Cru’s offense between pass and run, now that Jake Wright is comfortable at the helm. This edge, combined with the strength of the UMHB defense gives the Cru a big enough edge to pull out a win against the Blue Jays’ defensive stalwarts.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 20, Johns Hopkins 13

Logan's take: These are the two best defenses in the country. That shouldn't be up for debate after their performances of the last few weeks. Both offenses will struggle to move the ball, and this game likely comes down to which team is able to force a turnover or make a special teams play to either score on a return, or to set up their offense inside the 20. The more opportunistic of the two lately has been the Cru, but in a game that my model thinks only results in 21 or 22 total points, one big play can easily make the difference.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 14, Johns Hopkins 6

Riley's take: You can expect defense to headline this one. Of all the matchups this week, these feel like the two most similar teams in terms of style and areas of strength. Neither gives up much on the ground, and both are very physical in the trenches. I think this ultimately comes down to who can trade TDs for field goals. In other words, with very few expected red zone opportunities for both offenses, which defense will be able to force the opponent to settle for FGs rather than getting into the end zone? We've seen that trait from both defenses throughout the last couple weeks. In a tight finish, I'll take UMHB to keep its Cinderella run alive.  
Mary Hardin-Baylor 17, Johns Hopkins 13

Mike's take: I think we’ll see some similar numbers from panelists on this low scoring affair. If you love defense I’d recommend keeping your eyes on this game. A big special teams play, or error could be the difference here. With such standout defenses the battle for field position and turnovers gets amplified. I’m going with the road warriors from Texas because I believe they have a bit more offensive fire power than JHU.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 17, Johns Hopkins 10

Keith's take: We keep hearing that Mary Hardin-Baylor only beat three D-III programs during the regular season. But at this point, shouldn't we be saying only one team beat UMHB, one it vanquished two rounds ago, and there's no telling what the Cru's ceiling is? Likewise, we may have forgotten that Johns Hopkins was a quarterfinalist last year that lost on a last-five-seconds field goal, and is making its third appearance in the quarters under its third head coach in six years. The Blue Jays have the pedigree, and they belong here. They also haven't given up more than 14 points since Week 3. So every panelist is going low score here, and against just about any other team in the field I'd agree. But the Cru seems to have found its stride on the road in the postseason, and without gaudy stats or stars, they keep finding ways to win. And they should again. 
Mary Hardin-Baylor 26, Johns Hopkins 14

Greg's take: Salisbury came up with a monster defensive performance at just the right time. They’ll need it again this week as the Purple Raiders continue to get championship-level output from Tyler Echeverry.  The warning flag I see at Salisbury is the propensity to put the ball on the ground. Last week two first quarter fumbles didn’t cost the Sea Gulls, but those kinds of errors are typically what lead to lopsided results against the Purple Raiders. I expect a competitive game here, with Mount Union capitalizing on a turnover to make the difference. 
Mount Union 38, Salisbury 24

Pat's take: Mount Union is rolling and will be hard to stop, and count on Tyler Echeverry to rip off a long fourth quarter touchdown to seal the win at the end of a game which will be must-see-TV in the fourth quarter.
Mount Union 35, Salisbury 32

Frank's take: This is the toughest of the games for me to pick — and my deciding factor is to go with the experience of Mount Union’s program in these situations. SyRus McGowan, the freshman phenom, has engineered an impressive playoff run, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Sea Gulls find a way to win. Yet, the Mount defense has allowed TJ DeShields to come into his own since Noah Beaudrie’s late-season injury. Defense wins championships, and I give that edge to the Purple Raiders based on their play for several weeks.
Mount Union 24, Salisbury 21

Logan's take: The Machine, which came back to life against John Carroll two weeks ago, laid dormant for most of the season. They've kept games close against the worst teams on their schedule, and won against their best opponents by a single score. That's a recipe for disaster against a team like Salisbury, who can score at will from anywhere on the field, with any of a dozen different skill players. The biggest question for me will be how Salisbury's 64th-ranked rush defense holds up against the best rushing attack in the country outside of North Central & Salisbury. Can Mount Union control the game flow enough to keep the ball away from Salisbury?
Mount Union 38, Salisbury 35

Riley's take: I said from the beginning that I thought Salisbury was the best team in this quadrant. We'll soon find out if that's true, as Mount Union makes for a very tough test, even with Salisbury at home. There's a chance this ends up being an offensive shootout, considering the strength of both offenses, and I think the key for Salisbury will come down to how well the Sea Gulls extend drives. They've been consistent in converting 3rd and 4th downs, and the more Salisbury can move the chains, the more the triple option will wear down Mount Union's defensive front, especially since the Purple Raiders haven't faced a run-heavy team of this caliber yet. I expect both to score plenty, but Salisbury to pull ahead late. 
Salisbury 45, Mount Union 40

Mike's take: Betting against Mount Union is rarely a good idea. This is the toughest matchup for me to predict. I’ll give the nod to the home team, whose defense was mighty impressive last week. The Sea Gulls defense hasn’t been the most consistent unit, but if they can replicate last week’s performance they will win.
Salisbury 35, Mount Union 32

Keith's take: Let’s strip the names off the front of the jerseys. Team A leads the nation in passing efficiency, converts 59% of its third downs and scores 48.8 points per game. It’s been held below 41 points twice — in playoff wins in which it scored 33 and 35. Team B rushes for nearly 250 yards per game, has its offense flourishing with a senior QB pulling the trigger, and has to go on the road after hosting a couple early-round games. You know where this is going. After years as Division III’s premier program, Mount Union comes into this game as arguably the underdog — though we are contractually obligated to point out that the Purple Raiders beat the Sea Gulls 51-0 in the 2022 first round, a game some players who will take the field Saturday participated in. But just because Mount Union is no longer head and shoulders above almost every playoff-caliber program doesn’t mean it can’t pull off another trip to the semis. If you see Rossy Moore and friends in the backfield blowing up the Sea Gulls’ spread option, you’ll know it’s going well. But at the risk of being labeled a hater of Team B, I’m going with Team A and its previously shaky defense that managed eight sacks and allowed 14 rushing yards in its Round of 16 win. 
Salisbury 34, Mount Union 27