Chris Elliott and Carleton won the battle of Northfield, Minnesota, over its rival St. Olaf last year, taking home the Goat and earning the right to rotate the eagle in Bridge Square along the Cannon River in the center of town. Photo by Caleb Williams, d3photography.com

The regular season crosses the halfway point this weekend and while conference races are still just getting started, crucial games are going to happen this weekend in the WIAC (of course), the PAC, and ASC. Week 6 also features some unique trophy games that Quick Hits is going to check in on. Our panel is back to get you ready for all of that, plus upset picks and who might bounce back from a shutout in our Week 6 Quick Hits.

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 4 UW-River Falls at No. 11 UW-Platteville. If a team is going to win the WIAC, they’re going to need to win some big road games. The Pioneers got a big win at La Crosse last week in the most dramatic of finishes. Kaleb Blaha returned for River Falls last week and the Falcons’ chase for that elusive WIAC crown begins in earnest this weekend.
	Patrick's take: No. 14 Carnegie Mellon at No. 7 Grove City. Game of the season in the PAC, probably, and the first big test for the homestanding Wolverines, whose first four opponents are currently a combined 4-15.
	Frank's take: No. 14 Carnegie Mellon at No. 7 Grove City. After attending last year’s game (which also was at Grove City), I can attest to the energy, the athleticism, and the strategy this game presents. It’s a huge step for the winner in their hunt for the PAC’s AQ, but it also represents a showdown between what have become two very well-respected football teams.
	Logan's take: No. 14 Carnegie Mellon at No. 7 Grove City. I've had CMU bouncing around the No. 10 spot on my ballot since the preseason, and other than a slow start against W&J, they've looked the part all year. They'll need to avoid another slow start against Grove City, who has the top offense in the PAC, a better defense than W&J, and the confidence of a team who's stacked enough bricks over the last 8 years to build a new Fieldhouse.
	Riley's take: No. 6 Hardin-Simmons at No. 13 Mary Hardin-Baylor. The last two times these ASC rivals met in Belton, it resulted in an instant classic. I won't be surprised to see a similar sort of memorable finish this time around in the first of two regular season meetings between The Cru and the Cowboys this season. HSU is coming off its biggest win of the season so far, having downed Endicott at home, 35-27, and UMHB is feeling good about its on-field product as well, with its last two contests resulting in momentum-building wins over UW-Whitewater and ETBU. This could very well be a physical, low-scoring battle won in the trenches, considering the pride both programs take in their offensive and defensive line play. Expect a four-quarter battle. HSU hasn't won a game in Belton since 2004, but is the higher ranked team of the two in a matchup at Crusader Stadium for the first time since 2006.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: With nothing but super favorable matchups across the Top 25 vs. unranked teams, any upset this week will be a monumental upset. I won’t pick none, so Lewis & Clark,  you’re up. The Pioneers are going to No. 23 Linfield this week and if Lewis & Clark are going to pull off this upset, they’ll need a big game from Oa Kamakawiwoole. The sophomore is capable- he threw for for over 400 yards and 5 touchdowns against Montana Western earlier in the season (currently ranked 7th in NAIA). A Lewis & Clark win would be the first for the Pioneers in the series since 1973.
	Patrick's take: Here I am doing the None thing again, a week after it was actually true, but I really don't have any reason to pick a ranked team to lose to an unranked team.
	Frank's take: None. With four ranked-vs.-ranked showdowns, it takes a lot of potential upsets off the table since we tend to not consider the lower-ranked team winning an upset in this question. As such, the other games seem to have too many major imbalances, leaving me with a “none” answer.
	Logan's take:  Other than the matchups between two ranked teams, all but one ranked teams have at least a 90% chance of victory this week (UWW at 82% vs. Stout), and I already took a flyer on "none" last week. Of the ranked matchups this week, No. 13 Mary Hardin-Baylor over No. 6 Hardin-Simmons seems the most likely. Here's the odds of an upset for each of those matchups: HSU @ UMHB (57%) GCC vs. CMU (53%) UWRF @ UWP (32%) UWL @ UWO (74%)
	Riley's take: This feels like the week to pick none. But I'm going to go out on a limb and call out No. 3 St. John's at Concordia-Moorhead. We've got the top offense in the MIAC (SJU) pitted against the league's top defense thus far (Concordia), and this game is being played in Moorhead. SJU has looked really good so far, and I'm not doubting that for a second. But the Cobbers' defensive approach is intriguing, especially since they haven't allowed a TD since Week 1, are excellent on third down, and have shown they can contain the pass. All three of those characteristics will be crucial against the high-powered SJU offense. The only way Concordia stays in this is for the defense to take another step forward and keep it low-scoring, giving the offense enough time to put together a couple of scoring drives. It won't be easy, but I also think Concordia is underrated and could surprise us.

Five players caught 12 or more passes Week 5. Which one will catch the most passes in Week 6?

	Greg's take: Trey Birdsong, Illinois College. Birdsong, not Colin Brunstein, has been the volume receiver for Illinois College so far in 2024 and I expect a high volume pass game from the Blue Boys as they host Chicago this weekend.
	Patrick's take: Trey Birdsong, Illinois College. IC is bringing the offense this year, even against the top teams in the conference. Obviously schemes and defensive schemes and game plans vary, but feels like Birdsong has the best chance, against the University of Chicago.
	Frank's take: Jalen Wallace…while he plays Madden during his Saturday off… Okay, all kidding aside, I’ll go with Trey Birdsong since I think Illinois College is focusing more than ever on the pass — and they’ll need Destin Chance to find Birdsong plenty against Chicago.
	Logan's take: Joe Gallagher, Puget Sound (at George Fox) - Gallagher not only leads the entire country in receptions per game, but he's nearly averaging 12 receptions per game. And among this group of receivers, he also has the shortest yards per reception, suggesting his production is more reliant on packaged plays and quick throws, generally more stable than downfield passing.
	Riley's take: Joe Gallagher, Puget Sound. The junior receiver has connected with QB Mason Binning for 48 receptions already, including two games of 15 or more catches. The presence of Isaac Tran keeps defensive backs from focusing too heavily on Gallagher, and with George Fox's defense allowing 179 yards/game through the air, he should put up some big numbers again on Saturday.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Central at Coe. This game was spotlighted in Logan’s Analytics 3:01 segment on Around The Nation this week as a game with high playoff leverage. These teams come in ranked first and second in total offense and total defense in the ARC and with postseason hopes on the line, this is one of the more important games on the board this weekend.
	Patrick's take: It's barely under the radar, but for the purposes of this question, I'll call out Marietta at Heidelberg. The Pioneers are off to a 4-0 start and Heidelberg hasn't performed as well as it has in previous years in the OAC, but they'll still be a reasonable opponent who will finish in the middle of the pack in the conference.
	Frank's take: Carleton at St. Olaf. The MIAC provided some interesting twists in 2023, and St. Olaf might be providing yet another in 2024. The Oles are 4-0 this season, and a win vs. Carleton would match their largest win total since…2012! Carleton has played inconsistent football so far this season, but this could be a good matchup which could help prove whether or not St. Olaf is for real this year.
	Logan's take: LaGrange at N.C. Wesleyan. The Panthers snapped an 18-game losing streak a couple weeks ago at home, and this week they're looking for their first road win since September 18, 2021, a 14-game streak. My model has N.C. Wesleyan favored by less than a field goal, so a second streak-snapping win is well within reach.
	Riley's take: Williams at Middlebury. We've got two 3-1 teams, both of whom enter their fifth matchup of the season coming off a win. The matchup between Williams' run game and Middlebury's rushing defense will be interesting, with the Ephs averaging a NESCAC-best 4.3 yards per carry while the Panthers have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league, at 100.5. To add a little bit of history to this matchup, Williams hasn't won at Middlebury since 2017, while the Panthers are seeking their seventh consecutive win in the month of October, dating back to a 40-28 win at Bates on Oct. 22, 2022.

Which trophy game will be the highest scoring: Old Red Lantern, Ye Olde Skull, or the Battle for the Goat?

	Greg's take: Of the three rivalry games on tap here, the Old Red Lantern game appears most likely to end up in a track meet. Wooster’s defense has struggled against the run, which Denison excels at with star running back Trey Fabrocini. On the other side, Wooster has big play capability behind quarterback Chanden Lee. If both offenses get rolling, both the lantern and the scoreboard at Papp Stadium will get lit up.
	Patrick's take: The Battle for the Goat. We know the weather will be good, because there's been basically no rain in Minnesota for weeks. Carleton and St. Olaf combined for 64 points last year, and that might be enough to be the high among these games if they can match it.
	Frank's take: I’ll stick with my “under the radar” pick and say Carleton vs. St. Olaf will have about 75 points scored, edging out the other two.
	Logan's take:  Here's what the model thinks: Old Red Lantern - 54.0 Ye Olde Skull - 53.7 Battle for the Goat (i.e. the Cereal Bowl) - 52.5   That's a lot of help! Let's look at how these games played out last year... oh, all three games scored 64 points total? That clears it up.   Old Red Lantern, I guess.
	Riley's take: Denison at Wooster. Wooster's defense has given up a lot through its first five games; 504.4 yards/game to be exact. But they have a decent offense, one that has scored at least two touchdowns in every game thus far. On the other side, Denison has been one of the NCAC's most efficient offensive teams thus far, contributing to a 3-0 league record. But the Big Red's defense has also shown some weakness, and this whole situation creates for a game in which the combined scoring will be high. Both defenses will give up scores, and while I expect Denison to pull away at some point, Wooster will put enough points on the board to push the combined total above 60.

Pick a team that was shut out last week to win this week.

	Greg's take: St. John Fisher hasn’t scored in six quarters, but the Cardinals travel to winless Hilbert this week where they should be able to get back in the end zone and the win column.
	Patrick's take: St. John Fisher. I am probably taking the low-hanging fruit here, but I don't score a lot of points in this game and I need the W. So does Hilbert, which has literally never won a game since starting its football program, but the Hawks have only scored six points total in five games this season.
	Frank's take: St. John Fisher (vs. Hilbert). Fisher may not have been king for most of the season, but Hilbert is just plain struggling, averaging 1.2 points per game on offense. Saturday will not be Hilbert’s first program victory.
	Logan's take: There are a few big favorites among this group, but the biggest of those is Gustavus Adolphus against St. Scholastica.  Morrisville State 89.8% St John Fisher 95.6% Gustavus Adolphus 98.4%
	Riley's take:  Gustavus Adolphus. After they shut out Augsburg, Bethel returned the favor by shutting out the Gusties last week. But in their third MIAC game, Gustavus has a great opportunity to get back in the win column against St. Scholastica. The Gusties have won all three games they've played against the Saints, with an average margin of victory of 62. While the offense hasn't been fantastic, Gustavus has an athletic edge at the skill positions against a defense that is allowing 391 yards/game, the most in the MIAC.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!