Last year, Alma bottled up Hope in a 35-17 win. This week, the rematch. 2023 Hope athletics photo by Lynne Powe

With just one Top 25 matchup on the board this week and a number of teams and entire conferences taking an idle week before launching into conference play in October, Week 4 is about as light a week as there is. Even in a slow week, there are 87 games and 173 Division III teams in action this weekend. This week we're not just tracking massive weather events, but also a matchup of favorites in the MIAC and MIAA, as well as the first big domino to fall in the PAC. We're also looking under the radar for gems to stream on Saturday and where you might look to find some big passing days. There are no bye weeks for the Quick Hits panel, and they're back to get you ready for Week 4. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 5 St. John’s at No. 24 Bethel. Maybe these teams will play again, maybe they won’t -- we can’t assume anything! When we last saw the Johnnies they were absolutely controlling Wartburg at Clemens Stadium. Bethel has posted a cool 100 points in their first two games of the season. The entire MIAC season may well be sandwiched between a pair of Johnnies-Royals matchups, but just in case we don’t get a rematch in Week 11, check this one out.
	Patrick's take: Hope at No. 16 Alma. This game will have all the implications in the MIAA race, and it features Hope, which has cruised to 48.7 points per game through the first three weeks, getting its first real test of the season. And it features Alma, with some new defensive starters, and the potent Scots offense. This should be an entertaining one.
	Frank's take: Williams at Trinity (Conn.). It’s rare to see a crucial early-season NESCAC game like this, but these may be the two teams to beat for the NESCAC championship this season. Trinity’s defense is averaging allowing just 7 points per game, but Williams is averaging 33 points on offense. After a pair of 3-6 seasons following a 9-0 campaign in 2021, Williams is looking for a signature game to show that the Ephs are back. This will be one to watch.
	Logan's take: I made the mistake last season of skipping St. John's vs. Bethel because I mistakenly assumed there would be a rematch, and I'm going to do the same thing this year, and go with Hope at No. 16 Alma. Hope has looked unstoppable in the early going, beating three quality opponents and running the ball at will. Alma's defense has struggled, but put forth their best performance yet against D-II Northern Michigan last week.
	Riley's take: No. 15 Carnegie Mellon at Washington & Jefferson. This matchup is intriguing, in large part because of just how evenly-matched they are on paper, and how little we actually know about them in Week 4. Neither has played an opponent of top quality this season, and that's just the honest truth. Both are averaging above 55 points per game, and neither defense has allowed more than nine. We're going to learn a lot about these two as both face their first real test, and I think this comes down to how effective W&J can be running the ball against CMU's stonewall defensive front. W&J is prolific through the air--QB Jacob Pugh is fourth nationally in passing yardage per game--but in order to open up those deep routes downfield, W&J needs to establish its run game at the same time. 54% of the Presidents' plays this season have been on the ground, as they average 203.3 rushing yards per game, but they haven't gone up against a defense at the level of CMU's, which has surrendered just 55 total rushing yards this season.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 15 Carnegie Mellon. This is one where I really want to emphasize that most likely does not mean certain. Most of the Top 25 have pretty favorable matchups against unranked opponents. The Tartans are on the road at a very good Washington & Jefferson club that has won nine consecutive home games (t-4th longest home winning streak in D-III). Expect a very good, very close ballgame in Washington, Pa., on Saturday.
	Patrick's take: None. I'm not feeling any Top 25 team getting knocked off by an unranked team this week.
	Frank's take: No. 16 Alma (vs. Hope). Alma has had a roller coaster of a season already, with a tough loss against UWRF, only a narrow win vs. Denison, and a non-D3 game last weekend. In the meantime, Hope has swiftly flown past the competition — averaging 48.3 points on offense and allowing an average of 4.3 points on defense. While this is a clear upgrade in opponent for Hope, it just seems like the Flying Dutchmen have a good sense of momentum and flow sufficient to upset the Scots in this big MIAA game.
	Logan's take: In a week with a lot of the division idle, I have four Top 25 teams favored by 7 points or less this week - Endicott (-7.0), SJU (-5.0), Carnegie Mellon (-3.5), Alma (-2.5). I already used Alma/Hope as my GOTW, but I'm going with it here, as well. Alma's still a favorite, but I have a feeling Hope's going to manage considerably better in the trenches than 2023, where they ran for 2.7 yards per rush and allowed 6.2.
	Riley's take: No. 12 Endicott. RPI struggled in its first go-around with a Top 25 opponent this season, losing to UW-La Crosse, 35-0, but the Engineers seem to be a different team in Week 4 than they were in Week 1. The offense has recorded back-to-back performances of 120+ rushing yards and 250+ passing yards, and having a similar level of production will be key against Endicott's stingy defense. This won't be easy, but RPI needs Kayden White going in the run game to have a chance. He emerged as a quality ball carrier against Wilkes and WPI, and is averaging 6.6 yards/carry. RPI needs to limit the amount of time Endicott's offense is on the field, and extending possessions by keeping it on the ground might just be the answer. The RPI defense needs to take a step forward as well, particularly against the pass. Endicott is at home and the favorite for good reason, but if RPI manages to slow down the Gulls' offense, the Engineers might just have a chance at pulling off the road upset.

Of the current top 5 Quarterbacks by passing yards playing this week, which will have the most passing yards in Week 4?

	Greg's take: ETBU’s Kaden Brown was in the game late in the fourth quarter slinging the ball all over the place in the Tigers’ 63-28 win at Hendrix a couple of weeks ago. If time and score aren't going to keep Brown out of a fourth quarter, Brown has an opportunity to accumulate a lot of yardage.
	Patrick's take: Joey Armentrout, Coast Guard. Against Springfield, Coast Guard is going to need all the offense it can muster up to keep up with the Pride, and to me, that means plenty of passing opportunities and probably plenty of yards.
	Frank's take: Kaden Brown of ETBU (vs. Centenary). This could be a high-scoring game for both teams, necessitating Brown to throw for 400+ yards for an ETBU win.
	Logan's take: I'm going with Ryan Russell of Anna Maria, who plays Husson this week. This game has an O/U of 85.8 in my model, and is expected to be within 1 score. That sounds like the perfect recipe to air it out.
	Riley's take: Ryan Russell, Anna Maria. If Anna Maria ends up in an offensive shootout on the road at Husson this Saturday, and there is good reason to believe they will, Russell's passing ability will be needed to keep the Amcats in the game. The senior has already thrown for over 1,000 yards through three games and is in position for success against a Husson defense that allowed 341 yards through the air against Norwich last week.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Huntingdon at Hendrix. The Hawks and Warriors meet for the second time in their history. Their previous meeting came in Hendrix’s third year in Division III in the first round of the 2015 playoffs, a 38-27 win for Huntingdon. These are two teams with the capability to move the ball up and down the field quickly. Keep an eye on Hendrix sophomore quarterback Jacob Buniff, who is among the nation’s leaders in passing touchdowns with 10 so far this season.
	Patrick's take: Catholic at Alfred. This is a rematch of a classic game from 1994 when guys who are now in their 50s battled in Washington, D.C., in the first football game I worked as a sports information director. And my good friend Ray Martel, for the life of him, couldn't remember the name of Alfred running back Derek Comestro as he broadcast the game on the campus radio station, taking over the play-by-play job from me. And Scooter Hendricks had a day at quarterback for the Saxons. And Catholic lost 35-29 and finished 8-2 and did not make the playoffs. Good times. Last year these teams played at Catholic as part of the E8-Landmark crossover and Alfred won 9-6 on a rainy afternoon.
	Frank's take: Albion at Trine. The MIAA is setting up to be a very interesting conference with a likelihood for a Pool C bid in the expanded system. After tripping out of the starting gate, Trine has found their offensive identity, scoring 39 and 52 points in their last two wins. Albion was on a roll early before slipping against Mount St. Joseph. The winner of this game not only stays alive in the MIAA Pool A race, but also has a chance in the Pool C discussion, even at 8-2 later.
	Logan's take: Two maritime powers, SUNY-Maritime and USMMA, meet up on the Western shores of Long Island Sound this weekend for the first 2024 matchup in the two schools' "Captain James Harvey Tomb Trophy," which is essentially a two-school all-sports trophy. USMMA has won the last five matchups, and should be expected to win again on the road (or sea?) this weekend.
	Riley's take: Loras at Simpson. It seems rare to find an instance in which a matchup between two teams ends up with a 66-point margin one year and could be decided by a field goal the next. But that's what we have here. Loras has dominated its recent meetings against Simpson, including last year's 82-16 win and the 63-21 victory the year prior, though the Duhawks have hit a skid, highlighted by consecutive weeks of single-digit losses by five points or fewer. Loras needs a win badly--the last time the Duhawks started a season 0-4 was 2016--but so does Simpson. The last time the Storm beat Loras was 2018, the same year as their most recent season above .500. These two appear to be evenly-matched, and this is a game I expect to be decided on the final drive.

Which team will be the most surprising 4-0 team?

	Greg's take: Rochester. The Yellow Jackets are off to a hot start and a win over University of New England on Saturday would mark the first 4-0 start to a Rochester season since 2000.
	Patrick's take: Benedictine, to me, has the best combination of being a surprise and being likely to win on Saturday as the Eagles host Concordia (Wis.).
	Frank's take: Rochester (vs. University of New England). For a team that has averaged less than 3 wins per season since 2016, the Yellow Jackets are having a surprisingly crisp start to 2024. Coach Chad Martinovich’s system began showing progress last year, with a 5-5 campaign, but a 4-0 start is unheard of for recent Rochester teams. Here’s a legitimate shot for Rochester to get a 4-0 start with a win this weekend.
	Logan's take: If Baldwin-Wallace beats Mount Union, they would certainly be the most surprising, but I don't think that's happening. Instead, I'm going with FDU-Florham. The Devils are not favorites this weekend, but so far they're 3-0 against my projections, and with a modest 3.5 point spread against Lebanon Valley to cover for a win, I think they can continue some positive momentum into a 4-0 start.
	Riley's take: Rochester. Keep in mind that this is a program that went 0-10 in 2019, hasn't finished a season above .500 since 2015, and was picked fifth in the Liberty League's preseason poll. Despite all of that, the Yellowjackets are clicking right now, and enter Saturday's game against UNE with a very good probability to improve to 4-0 for the first time since 2000. The defense is allowing just 9.0 points per game and has only surrendered one touchdown through the last two games. With another quality performance on that side of the ball, Rochester will enter LL play next week as the league's lone undefeated team.

Which two teams will lead the MAC after Saturday?

	Greg's take: The top four teams in the MAC standings square off on Saturday and I like the home teams, King’s and FDU-Florham, to come out on top.
	Patrick's take: King's and Lebanon Valley. But good question. I'm more torn on Leb Val, but I think they will get it done on the road at FDU-Florham and King's should be favored against Widener.
	Frank's take: Lebanon Valley & King’s. It’s tough to choose as the four leaders of the MAC are all of equal pegging right now. I give LebVal the slight edge in their game vs. FDU-Florham since LebVal handily beat Stevenson this season. For King’s, the loss vs. Wilkes was hard-fought, but Widener struggled badly against a Lycoming team that hasn’t shown much consistency so far this season. Both games could go either way, though, with DelVal watching closely since the Aggies are very much alive still for the MAC Pool A bid.
	Logan's take: FDU-Florham (in a close one) & King's (in a slightly less close one).
	Riley's take: We have four MAC teams that are 2-0 right now, but that number will be cut in half this weekend. Give me Widener to extend its win streak over King's to 12, and Lebanon Valley to get past FDU-Florham on the road.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!