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| The Sea Gulls are flying high after posting their best offensive day (in terms of total yards) since 2018. Salisbury athletics photo by FOTOJOE Photography Inc. |
It's Week 2 in Division III football and we welcome No. 1 North Central, the NESCAC, and others to the 2024 season. The nation's top-ranked team features in one of three top-25 matchups in Week 2, but do the Cardinals feature as our Game of the Week? Which teams are looking to bounce back after an early-season rivalry setback and which teams are surging to an unexpected pair of opening wins? Our panel of experts is back to set up this weekend's games in this week's edition of Quick Hits.
Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.
— Greg Thomas
Which game is the Game of the Week?
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Greg's take: No. 16 Endicott at No. 24 Ithaca. For the second time in as many weeks, Butterfield Stadium will host a matchup of Top 25 teams. Ithaca had its hands full in Week 1 with visiting Johns Hopkins, falling to the Blue Jays 27-23. Clayton Marengi and the Gulls had no trouble whatsoever in their opener, routing St. Lawrence 44-13. Ithaca used a 13-0 fourth quarter run one year ago to win the first game in this series 20-17. |
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Pateick's take: No. 5 Wartburg at No. 12 St. John's. It's a great matchup in any year, and St. John's is ranked lower based on the results of last season, and Wartburg has won the past two meetings. This is the first regular season meeting since 1971. But Wartburg lost a lot of pieces from the team that made those big runs the past two seasons. I feel like we're going to learn a lot. |
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Frank's take: One of the two games I’ll be attending: No. 1 North Central at No. 15 Aurora. With Aurora having a game under their belt and NCC “on the road” (not exactly a long road trip), this could play out interestingly. This is Aurora’s chance to shake off all of the doubters nationally — winning the NACC is one thing; winning vs. NCC is a whole 'nother thing. |
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Logan's take: No. 5 Wartburg at No.12 St. John's is an easy call for me. My model thinks this is as close as can be, with SJU favored by less than a tenth of a point. The last time these teams met in the 2022 playoff, Wartburg beat SJU 23-20 at their place. Carter Markham got his first taste of playoff football that game as a backup. Two years later, and now Carter is the full time starter leading a host of new faces on both sides of the ball for the Knights. SJU obviously has plenty of new starters, too, but they return All-Region QB Aaron Syverson, who was extremely efficient in their opener against Carthage. Wartburg gave up some big plays last week against Monmouth, and will need to keep the ball in front of them better this week in Collegeville. |
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Riley's take: No. 5 Wartburg at No. 12 St. John's. There might not be a more anticipated non-conference game this season, especially considering the atmosphere that this one will be played in. The last time these two met was in the 2022 playoffs, as Wartburg escaped Collegeville with a 23-20 victory. Two years later, this game won't end one team's season, but it may very well impact either team's ability to host deep into the postseason. Both offenses are especially potent through the air, and with such a thin margin between the two on paper, it feels like the kind of matchup will be decided on the game's final drive. |
Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?
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Greg's take: No. 18 Muhlenberg. I went searching for road teams with difficult matchups, and Muhlenberg fits the bill. Salisbury ran -- and threw-- all over Washington & Lee in their opening week win. Salisbury is eager to rejoin the Top 25 and showing out against a ranked team would help boost that cause. |
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Patrick's take: No. 22 Berry. A number of possibles this week, but need to recognize DePauw's great start of the season and shine a little light on this game. |
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Frank's take: No. 18 Muhlenberg (at Salisbury). Playing at Salisbury is never easy, and there are many indications that Coach Wood has his team back as a major NJAC favorite. After 600-plus yards of offense vs. a decent W&L team last week, Salisbury could start fast and make it a long day for the Mules this week. |
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Logan's take: I have Wartburg and Endicott as tossups against St. John's and Ithaca, respectively, but I burned my one ranked-vs-ranked matchup last week, so instead I'm going with No. 18 Muhlenberg on the road against Salisbury. The best Salisbury teams in recent memory have not only been lethal with their triple option attack (9.4 yards/rush last week), but they've also had the ability to get huge chunks passing the ball, which they did last week on receptions of 49, 56, 63, and 89 yards. Muhlenberg is still the favorite, and Salisbury's defense will need to limit big plays better themselves (Muhlenberg had a 99 yard touchdown reception of their own last week from Repetti to Chris Ardito), but the upset potential is there. |
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Riley's take: No. 18 Muhlenberg. This has little to do with Muhlenberg, who certainly took care of business in a 33-7 win over Moravian last Saturday, and everything to do with what Salisbury showed in its 48-26 win over Washington & Lee. Facing a run-heavy team is a different kind of task for any defense, with often long possessions and the potential for the defensive front to wear down quickly. Not to mention that Salisbury's efficient rushing attack averaged 9.4 yards per carry against W&L, finishing with a pair of 130-yard rushers in Dario Belizaire and Ronald Clark. If Salisbury can come close to replicating that against the Mules, the Sea Gulls will have a chance. And here's the thing; Salisbury, while run-heavy, isn't one-dimensional. In fact, they threw for 269 yards last weekend, so if needed, the Sea Gulls will have no issue taking to the air as well, creating a tough matchup for Muhlenberg's solid defense. |
Which team has best bounce back after falling in a Week 1 rivalry game?
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Greg's take: King’s. Wilkes pulled away from King’s in the Mayor’s Cup, but King's QB Russell Minor-Shaw stood out enough to be named the game’s MVP. Back home at McCarthy Stadium, I expect King’s to kick off their MAC campaign with a win. |
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Patrick's take: King's. The Monarchs lost to Wilkes in the Mayor's Cup last week but put together a ton of yards and put a bunch of points on the board in the first half. They'll have a good shot to put it together against Misericordia. |
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Frank's take: Norwich (vs. St. Lawrence). With the Saints struggling mightily against Endicott in Week 1, Norwich in a home stand should have a much better weekend in Week 2. |
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Logan's take: Of the teams who lost named rivalry games last week, King's and Western New England are the only two who have a moderate shot of victory this week, and of those two, I'm going to give the edge to King's against Misericordia. King's played well last week against Wilkes, but just allowed too many big plays in the first half, and put their offense in a hole they couldn't climb out of, despite a 28-35 day passing from Russell Minor-Shaw. Misericordia isn't going to present the explosive potential of Wilkes (two plays longer than 20 yards last week in a win), and King's should be able to keep the Cougars at arms' length. |
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Riley's take: Belhaven feels like a good pick here, though facing Trinity (Texas) will be no easy task. Trinity is eager for a win after a tough loss to Texas Lutheran at home, though Belhaven had an even more bitter pill to swallow in its Week 1 loss, marching into the red zone with under a minute left, only to lose to Millsaps on a bad snap. Playing at home, the Blazers have the defensive talent to hold Trinity's offense at bay, though Belhaven's offensive line play will need to be better than it was last week if they want to get in the win column. |
Which under the radar game are you following?
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Greg's take: Salve Regina at Western New England. As someone who expects some pretty big things out of Salve Regina, I’ve got my eye on this one at Golden Bear Stadium. Salve Regina won the last meeting between these teams 28-25 in 2022 and comes in having won their opener against Curry. WNE is rebounding from a 38-35 loss to Springfields in the Pynchon SAW game. This should be a great matchup between a pair of Region 1 contenders. |
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Patrick's take: Southwestern at Puget Sound. Already a 1-0 start as head coach for Bill Kriesel and the Pirates have a really good shot at going 2-0. |
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Frank's take: McDaniel at Rowan. The question after Rowan’s surprise big win at Stevenson in Week 1 under new Head Coach Pat Ruley is whether or not this is an indication that the Profs are back in the NJAC pack. This game could help build momentum as Rowan heads into a couple big games in Weeks 3 and 5. McDaniel’s defense might block that momentum after not giving up a TD last week, though. |
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Logan's take: UW-Stevens Point at St. Norbert. The Green Knights were UW-Stevens Point's only win last year, but St. Norbert has two wins over WIAC schools since 2019, including one against the Pointers in 2022. The biggest question for me is whether SNC's lopsided loss last week to Wabash was more of an indication that Wabash is better than expected, or if St. Norbert is due for a down year. A win against UWSP would reaffirm their status as the #2 team in the NACC behind Aurora. |
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Riley's take: Ferrum at North Carolina Wesleyan. This will be the 14th meeting between these two southeastern programs since 2004, and it might end up being the last, with Ferrum heading to Division II next fall. N.C. Wesleyan, who enters as the favorite playing at home, will certainly be looking to avenge last year's 34-0 shutout by Ferrum in what could be the series' final meeting. Speaking of home field, N.C. Wesleyan appears to be in good position to win its first home opener since 2018. If that's going to happen, you can be sure running back Anthony Byrd will have a role in it, as he comes off a week in which he rushed for the fifth-most yards in Division III, with 192, eclipsing the career 2,000-yard mark. |
Who will be the most surprising 2-0 team?
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Greg's take: Minnesota-Morris. The Cougars shocked Macalester in Week 1 with a late touchdown that not only secured a Homecoming win, but notched the UMAC’s first victory over a MIAC team in 39 tries. This week Minnesota-Morris heads to St. Paul to take on Hamline and notch their second win over the mighty MIAC in as many weeks. |
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Patrick's take: I know I just talked about them, but Southwestern. You'd have been pretty surprised if we said that two weeks ago, right? |
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Frank's take: Some folks (me included) thought Calvin would struggle to win a game this year. After the Knights’ Week 1 performance, I think they have a legitimate shot to start 2-0 after a potential win at Concordia (Wis.). I’m curious to see how the momentum works on the road for the Knights. |
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Logan's take: I only count 11 teams in my database who won last week and were not favored either of the first two weeks. I really want to pick either Fitchburg State or Willamette after their big upsets last week, but I just don't think either gets it done. I could also double-down with my Salisbury pick, but instead I'm going to highlight Minnesota-Morris, who has a chance to double-dip on UMAC over MIAC wins at Hamline on Saturday. |
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Riley's take: Southwestern. It's been a little while since the Pirates opened a season 2-0. But after upsetting preseason SCAC favorite McMurry in Week 1, that's a real possibility, as Southwestern heads to the West Coast in a matchup against Puget Sound. The Pirate offense displayed its big-play potential with 333 passing yards and 432 yards of offense last weekend, and will need a few of those big plays to beat the Loggers in Week 2. |
The NESCAC gets underway this weekend. How many road teams will win?
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Greg's take: One. Home favorites abound in the opening weekend of NESCAC play, but I think one road team- Bowdoin- will break through. |
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Patrick's take: One. Home teams look like they should be favored, although I have my eyes on Bates. |
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Frank's take: One. I have Amherst, Middlebury, Trinity, and Williams winning at home, with a chance for Tufts to hold serve at home. |
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Logan's take: It's possible for a clean sweep by home teams, but I think one of Bates, Wesleyan, Hamilton, or Bowdoin gets it done. Bates @ Amherst (35%) |
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Riley's take: One. Wesleyan's explosive quarterback-receiver combo of seniors Niko Candido and Chase Wilson will lift the Cardinals to a big win at Middlebury, giving Wesleyan consecutive wins over the Panthers for the first time since 2014. The other four games will see the hosts walk away with the victory. |
Got picks? Put them in the comments!